Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf, including Iranian restrictions and new transit protocols under the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, have kept commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz at sharply reduced levels since late February 2026. Recent data show daily transits averaging single digits to low teens in early May, far below pre-crisis norms of around 60 vessels per day, due to risks from naval presence, potential hazards, and unresolved US-Iran dynamics despite earlier ceasefire announcements. Traders assign an 86.5% probability to an average of 0-10 ships by end of May, reflecting the slow pace of any recovery and limited progress on safe passage arrangements such as paused US-guided corridors. Key upcoming factors include any shifts in enforcement or diplomatic signals that could ease or extend these constraints within the resolution window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於0-10 87%
10-20 6%
20-40 3.5%
60+ 3.0%
$319,851 交易量
$319,851 交易量
2026-05-31
0-10
87%
10-20
6%
20-40
3%
40-60
2%
60+
3%
0-10 87%
10-20 6%
20-40 3.5%
60+ 3.0%
$319,851 交易量
$319,851 交易量
2026-05-31
0-10
$170,835 交易量
87%
10-20
$42,858 交易量
6%
20-40
$34,031 交易量
3%
40-60
$27,429 交易量
2%
60+
$44,698 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf, including Iranian restrictions and new transit protocols under the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, have kept commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz at sharply reduced levels since late February 2026. Recent data show daily transits averaging single digits to low teens in early May, far below pre-crisis norms of around 60 vessels per day, due to risks from naval presence, potential hazards, and unresolved US-Iran dynamics despite earlier ceasefire announcements. Traders assign an 86.5% probability to an average of 0-10 ships by end of May, reflecting the slow pace of any recovery and limited progress on safe passage arrangements such as paused US-guided corridors. Key upcoming factors include any shifts in enforcement or diplomatic signals that could ease or extend these constraints within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市場開放時間： Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
交易量
$319,851結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf, including Iranian restrictions and new transit protocols under the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, have kept commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz at sharply reduced levels since late February 2026. Recent data show daily transits averaging single digits to low teens in early May, far below pre-crisis norms of around 60 vessels per day, due to risks from naval presence, potential hazards, and unresolved US-Iran dynamics despite earlier ceasefire announcements. Traders assign an 86.5% probability to an average of 0-10 ships by end of May, reflecting the slow pace of any recovery and limited progress on safe passage arrangements such as paused US-guided corridors. Key upcoming factors include any shifts in enforcement or diplomatic signals that could ease or extend these constraints within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$319,851結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf, including Iranian restrictions and new transit protocols under the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, have kept commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz at sharply reduced levels since late February 2026. Recent data show daily transits averaging single digits to low teens in early May, far below pre-crisis norms of around 60 vessels per day, due to risks from naval presence, potential hazards, and unresolved US-Iran dynamics despite earlier ceasefire announcements. Traders assign an 86.5% probability to an average of 0-10 ships by end of May, reflecting the slow pace of any recovery and limited progress on safe passage arrangements such as paused US-guided corridors. Key upcoming factors include any shifts in enforcement or diplomatic signals that could ease or extend these constraints within the resolution window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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