Rui Costa (PT) holds a commanding lead in recent polling for the Bahia Senate race, where voters select two candidates on October 4, driving the elevated market pricing around an 80% implied probability for first place. Multiple surveys from July through September, including those by Quaest, Real Time, and Paraná Pesquisas, place the former governor and ex-Casa Civil minister well ahead, often in the mid-20s to low-40s percent range depending on the aggregated scenario, supported by strong PT organization and state-level incumbency advantages. Incumbent Jaques Wagner (PT) trails as the next most visible contender, while João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) compete for the remaining competitive space at lower single-digit to mid-teen levels. The remaining registered candidates register negligible support, consistent with their minimal polling visibility and limited campaign momentum in the final weeks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於魯伊·科斯塔 80%
Jaques Wagner 10.8%
若昂·羅馬 7.4%
Angelo Coronel 3.4%
$30,256 交易量
$30,256 交易量
2027-06-30
魯伊·科斯塔
80%
Jaques Wagner
11%
若昂·羅馬
7%
Angelo Coronel
3%
Carlos Sodré
<1%
Gregorio Gould
<1%
馬塞洛·卡瓦略
<1%
馬塞洛·米萊特
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
<1%
教授德利安娜
<1%
魯伊·科斯塔 80%
Jaques Wagner 10.8%
若昂·羅馬 7.4%
Angelo Coronel 3.4%
$30,256 交易量
$30,256 交易量
2027-06-30
魯伊·科斯塔
$14,643 交易量
80%
Jaques Wagner
$6,085 交易量
11%
若昂·羅馬
$2,972 交易量
7%
Angelo Coronel
$1,922 交易量
3%
Carlos Sodré
$800 交易量
<1%
Gregorio Gould
$691 交易量
<1%
馬塞洛·卡瓦略
$741 交易量
<1%
馬塞洛·米萊特
$810 交易量
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
$775 交易量
<1%
教授德利安娜
$817 交易量
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa (PT) holds a commanding lead in recent polling for the Bahia Senate race, where voters select two candidates on October 4, driving the elevated market pricing around an 80% implied probability for first place. Multiple surveys from July through September, including those by Quaest, Real Time, and Paraná Pesquisas, place the former governor and ex-Casa Civil minister well ahead, often in the mid-20s to low-40s percent range depending on the aggregated scenario, supported by strong PT organization and state-level incumbency advantages. Incumbent Jaques Wagner (PT) trails as the next most visible contender, while João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) compete for the remaining competitive space at lower single-digit to mid-teen levels. The remaining registered candidates register negligible support, consistent with their minimal polling visibility and limited campaign momentum in the final weeks.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市場開放時間： Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ET
交易量
$30,256結束日期
2027-07-01市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETThe Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa (PT) holds a commanding lead in recent polling for the Bahia Senate race, where voters select two candidates on October 4, driving the elevated market pricing around an 80% implied probability for first place. Multiple surveys from July through September, including those by Quaest, Real Time, and Paraná Pesquisas, place the former governor and ex-Casa Civil minister well ahead, often in the mid-20s to low-40s percent range depending on the aggregated scenario, supported by strong PT organization and state-level incumbency advantages. Incumbent Jaques Wagner (PT) trails as the next most visible contender, while João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) compete for the remaining competitive space at lower single-digit to mid-teen levels. The remaining registered candidates register negligible support, consistent with their minimal polling visibility and limited campaign momentum in the final weeks.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$30,256結束日期
2027-07-01市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETRui Costa (PT) holds a commanding lead in recent polling for the Bahia Senate race, where voters select two candidates on October 4, driving the elevated market pricing around an 80% implied probability for first place. Multiple surveys from July through September, including those by Quaest, Real Time, and Paraná Pesquisas, place the former governor and ex-Casa Civil minister well ahead, often in the mid-20s to low-40s percent range depending on the aggregated scenario, supported by strong PT organization and state-level incumbency advantages. Incumbent Jaques Wagner (PT) trails as the next most visible contender, while João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) compete for the remaining competitive space at lower single-digit to mid-teen levels. The remaining registered candidates register negligible support, consistent with their minimal polling visibility and limited campaign momentum in the final weeks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions