Recent official forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute indicate a maximum temperature near 14°C in Amsterdam under persistent northwesterly maritime flow and limited sunshine. These conditions, combined with ongoing surface observations at Schiphol station, have driven the market-implied probability for a 14°C high to near certainty. Historical May climatology for the region supports this range, with average daily maxima around 15–17°C but cooler anomalies common during stable high-pressure setups. A sudden increase in solar insolation or a shift in wind direction could still push readings into the 15°C bin before the daily maximum is finalized, though model consensus currently assigns low likelihood to such changes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月17日阿姆斯特丹的最高溫度?
14°C 100.0%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$32,892 交易量
$32,892 交易量
14°C
100%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
14°C 100.0%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$32,892 交易量
$32,892 交易量
14°C
100%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent official forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute indicate a maximum temperature near 14°C in Amsterdam under persistent northwesterly maritime flow and limited sunshine. These conditions, combined with ongoing surface observations at Schiphol station, have driven the market-implied probability for a 14°C high to near certainty. Historical May climatology for the region supports this range, with average daily maxima around 15–17°C but cooler anomalies common during stable high-pressure setups. A sudden increase in solar insolation or a shift in wind direction could still push readings into the 15°C bin before the daily maximum is finalized, though model consensus currently assigns low likelihood to such changes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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