Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in New York City-area forecast models for May 17 highs at LaGuardia Airport station, with no outcome exceeding 32% implied probability for 79°F or below amid diverging GFS and ECMWF runs showing a range from the upper 70s to upper 80s. Recent National Weather Service guidance points to partly cloudy conditions under weak high pressure, but key variables include cloud cover timing—thicker marine stratus could cap temperatures at 79°F or below via sea breeze reinforcement—while clearer skies and lighter winds favor 84-89°F bins via enhanced urban heating and subsidence. Upper 90s outcomes remain improbable (<1%) due to climatological rarity for mid-May (normal ~72°F) and lack of strong ridging. Watch for 00Z model updates and NWS evening discussion, which often sharpen short-range probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於紐約市5月17日的最高溫度？
紐約市5月17日的最高溫度？
86-87°F 31%
84-85°F 28%
82-83°F 24%
80-81華氏度 5.8%
最新
最新
2026-05-17
華氏79度或以下
4%
80-81華氏度
6%
82-83°F
24%
84-85°F
28%
86-87°F
31%
88-89°F
11%
90-91°F
5%
92-93°F
3%
94-95°F
1%
96-97°F
<1%
華氏98度或更高
<1%
86-87°F 31%
84-85°F 28%
82-83°F 24%
80-81華氏度 5.8%
最新
最新
2026-05-17
華氏79度或以下
$66 交易量
4%
80-81華氏度
$39 交易量
6%
82-83°F
$41 交易量
24%
84-85°F
$86 交易量
28%
86-87°F
$34 交易量
31%
88-89°F
$23 交易量
11%
90-91°F
$61 交易量
5%
92-93°F
$13 交易量
3%
94-95°F
$76 交易量
1%
96-97°F
$311 交易量
<1%
華氏98度或更高
$321 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in New York City-area forecast models for May 17 highs at LaGuardia Airport station, with no outcome exceeding 32% implied probability for 79°F or below amid diverging GFS and ECMWF runs showing a range from the upper 70s to upper 80s. Recent National Weather Service guidance points to partly cloudy conditions under weak high pressure, but key variables include cloud cover timing—thicker marine stratus could cap temperatures at 79°F or below via sea breeze reinforcement—while clearer skies and lighter winds favor 84-89°F bins via enhanced urban heating and subsidence. Upper 90s outcomes remain improbable (<1%) due to climatological rarity for mid-May (normal ~72°F) and lack of strong ridging. Watch for 00Z model updates and NWS evening discussion, which often sharpen short-range probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$1,072結束日期
2026-05-17市場開放時間
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in New York City-area forecast models for May 17 highs at LaGuardia Airport station, with no outcome exceeding 32% implied probability for 79°F or below amid diverging GFS and ECMWF runs showing a range from the upper 70s to upper 80s. Recent National Weather Service guidance points to partly cloudy conditions under weak high pressure, but key variables include cloud cover timing—thicker marine stratus could cap temperatures at 79°F or below via sea breeze reinforcement—while clearer skies and lighter winds favor 84-89°F bins via enhanced urban heating and subsidence. Upper 90s outcomes remain improbable (<1%) due to climatological rarity for mid-May (normal ~72°F) and lack of strong ridging. Watch for 00Z model updates and NWS evening discussion, which often sharpen short-range probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$1,072結束日期
2026-05-17市場開放時間
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in New York City-area forecast models for May 17 highs at LaGuardia Airport station, with no outcome exceeding 32% implied probability for 79°F or below amid diverging GFS and ECMWF runs showing a range from the upper 70s to upper 80s. Recent National Weather Service guidance points to partly cloudy conditions under weak high pressure, but key variables include cloud cover timing—thicker marine stratus could cap temperatures at 79°F or below via sea breeze reinforcement—while clearer skies and lighter winds favor 84-89°F bins via enhanced urban heating and subsidence. Upper 90s outcomes remain improbable (<1%) due to climatological rarity for mid-May (normal ~72°F) and lack of strong ridging. Watch for 00Z model updates and NWS evening discussion, which often sharpen short-range probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions