Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and supporting ensemble models converge on a Beijing maximum near 27–28°C for May 18 under predominantly sunny skies and light southerly flow that promotes gradual daytime warming. This consensus drives the closely matched market-implied odds, with 27°C leading at 34% and 28°C at 22.5%, while 26°C holds 23%. Small differences in boundary-layer mixing, exact peak timing, or localized advection can shift the official high by 1°C, as recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport. Historical May climatology shows typical maxima in this range, underscoring the narrow uncertainty band traders are pricing. Updated model runs overnight will clarify any revisions ahead of final resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月18日北京最高溫度?
27°C 35%
26°C 23%
28°C 22%
25°C 13%
$36,390 交易量
$36,390 交易量
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
13%
26°C
23%
27°C
35%
28°C
22%
29°C
5%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 35%
26°C 23%
28°C 22%
25°C 13%
$36,390 交易量
$36,390 交易量
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
13%
26°C
23%
27°C
35%
28°C
22%
29°C
5%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and supporting ensemble models converge on a Beijing maximum near 27–28°C for May 18 under predominantly sunny skies and light southerly flow that promotes gradual daytime warming. This consensus drives the closely matched market-implied odds, with 27°C leading at 34% and 28°C at 22.5%, while 26°C holds 23%. Small differences in boundary-layer mixing, exact peak timing, or localized advection can shift the official high by 1°C, as recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport. Historical May climatology shows typical maxima in this range, underscoring the narrow uncertainty band traders are pricing. Updated model runs overnight will clarify any revisions ahead of final resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions