Latest forecast models from the German Weather Service and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show Munich under a stable high-pressure ridge today, with light westerly winds and increasing afternoon cloud cover limiting solar heating. These conditions point to a daily maximum near 16 °C at Munich Airport, the station used for market resolution, consistent with the leading 48 % market-implied probability. Mid-May climatological normals place the typical high at 17–19 °C, yet today’s modest advection of cooler maritime air and reduced insolation have shifted the distribution toward the 15–16 °C brackets that now hold over 78 % combined probability. Updated model runs this morning show minimal spread, keeping the chance of reaching 17 °C or higher below 26 %.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月17日慕尼黑最高溫度?
16°C 48%
15°C 31%
17°C 22%
14°C 4.9%
$15,847 交易量
$15,847 交易量
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
5%
15°C
31%
16°C
48%
17°C
22%
18°C
2%
19°C
1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
16°C 48%
15°C 31%
17°C 22%
14°C 4.9%
$15,847 交易量
$15,847 交易量
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
5%
15°C
31%
16°C
48%
17°C
22%
18°C
2%
19°C
1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Latest forecast models from the German Weather Service and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show Munich under a stable high-pressure ridge today, with light westerly winds and increasing afternoon cloud cover limiting solar heating. These conditions point to a daily maximum near 16 °C at Munich Airport, the station used for market resolution, consistent with the leading 48 % market-implied probability. Mid-May climatological normals place the typical high at 17–19 °C, yet today’s modest advection of cooler maritime air and reduced insolation have shifted the distribution toward the 15–16 °C brackets that now hold over 78 % combined probability. Updated model runs this morning show minimal spread, keeping the chance of reaching 17 °C or higher below 26 %.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions