Official measurements from Meteo-France stations confirmed a maximum temperature of 16°C in Paris on May 16, driving the market's 100% implied probability for that exact outcome. Stable high-pressure systems over western Europe combined with moderate northwesterly flow kept daytime heating modest, well below the typical mid-May average of 18–20°C for the Paris region. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model runs showed tight consensus on this range in the final 48 hours, with no significant warm-air advection or urban heat-island amplification under clear skies and light winds. While post-event data revisions remain theoretically possible, the alignment of surface observations and reanalysis products leaves little room for adjustment, underscoring why traders assigned near-certainty to the 16°C threshold.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月16日巴黎最高溫度?
16°C 100.0%
10°C或以下 <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$157,461 交易量
$157,461 交易量
10°C或以下
否
11°C
否
12°C
否
13°C
否
14°C
否
15°C
否
16°C
是
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C或以上
否
16°C 100.0%
10°C或以下 <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$157,461 交易量
$157,461 交易量
10°C或以下
否
11°C
否
12°C
否
13°C
否
14°C
否
15°C
否
16°C
是
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C或以上
否
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Official measurements from Meteo-France stations confirmed a maximum temperature of 16°C in Paris on May 16, driving the market's 100% implied probability for that exact outcome. Stable high-pressure systems over western Europe combined with moderate northwesterly flow kept daytime heating modest, well below the typical mid-May average of 18–20°C for the Paris region. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model runs showed tight consensus on this range in the final 48 hours, with no significant warm-air advection or urban heat-island amplification under clear skies and light winds. While post-event data revisions remain theoretically possible, the alignment of surface observations and reanalysis products leaves little room for adjustment, underscoring why traders assigned near-certainty to the 16°C threshold.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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