Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Seattle's highest temperature on May 13 at 56-57°F, backed by official observational data from the National Weather Service at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (KSEA), the standard station for such resolutions. This outcome stems from a sharp cool-down after early May record highs of 81°F on May 4, driven by a weakening upper-level ridge that enabled persistent onshore flow, cool Pacific air advection, and low-level marine stratus clouds capping daytime heating. Forecast models from NOAA aligned with this pattern, showing limited solar insolation and temperatures stuck in the mid-50s amid typical May climatology (average high ~64°F). Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include rare post hoc data revisions from quality control audits or disputes over measurement site compliance, though none are currently indicated.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Seattle on May 13?
56-57°F 100.0%
53°F or below <1%
54-55°F <1%
58-59°F <1%
$128,203 交易量
$128,203 交易量
53°F or below
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
Yes
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72°F or higher
No
56-57°F 100.0%
53°F or below <1%
54-55°F <1%
58-59°F <1%
$128,203 交易量
$128,203 交易量
53°F or below
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
Yes
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72°F or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 11, 2026, 12:33 AM ET
已提議結果: Yes
無爭議
最終結果: Yes
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
已提議結果: Yes
無爭議
最終結果: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Seattle's highest temperature on May 13 at 56-57°F, backed by official observational data from the National Weather Service at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (KSEA), the standard station for such resolutions. This outcome stems from a sharp cool-down after early May record highs of 81°F on May 4, driven by a weakening upper-level ridge that enabled persistent onshore flow, cool Pacific air advection, and low-level marine stratus clouds capping daytime heating. Forecast models from NOAA aligned with this pattern, showing limited solar insolation and temperatures stuck in the mid-50s amid typical May climatology (average high ~64°F). Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include rare post hoc data revisions from quality control audits or disputes over measurement site compliance, though none are currently indicated.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions