**Recent forecasts position the highest temperature in Tokyo on August 31 around 29–31 °C, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes (30 °C at 40%, 29 °C at 26.5%, 31 °C at 20.5%).** As of August 29, 2026, models from the Japan Meteorological Agency, Met Office, and others indicate a mostly cloudy day with easterly winds, high humidity, and only a slight to moderate chance of showers or thunderstorms—conditions that limit strong daytime heating. Recent observations show a cooling trend after early-August peaks above 35 °C, with August 28–29 highs near 29–33 °C under similar overcast, humid patterns. This setup reflects typical late-summer transitional weather in the Kanto region, where cloud cover and moisture moderate temperatures below the seasonal peak (often 31–33 °C). Resolution depends on the official JMA maximum at the Tokyo station; updated model runs and the final 24-hour forecast before August 31 will provide the clearest signals for any shifts in these implied probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月31日東京氣溫最高？
8月31日東京氣溫最高？
30°C 40%
29°C 27%
31°C 21%
28°C 10%
最新
$10,375 交易量
最新
$10,375 交易量
2026-08-31
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
3%
28°C
10%
29°C
27%
30°C
40%
31°C
21%
32°C
4%
33°C
2%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 40%
29°C 27%
31°C 21%
28°C 10%
最新
$10,375 交易量
最新
$10,375 交易量
2026-08-31
25°C or below
$387 交易量
<1%
26°C
$458 交易量
1%
27°C
$411 交易量
3%
28°C
$1,110 交易量
10%
29°C
$1,874 交易量
27%
30°C
$2,170 交易量
40%
31°C
$2,304 交易量
21%
32°C
$564 交易量
4%
33°C
$378 交易量
2%
34°C
$195 交易量
<1%
35°C or higher
$525 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts position the highest temperature in Tokyo on August 31 around 29–31 °C, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes (30 °C at 40%, 29 °C at 26.5%, 31 °C at 20.5%).**
As of August 29, 2026, models from the Japan Meteorological Agency, Met Office, and others indicate a mostly cloudy day with easterly winds, high humidity, and only a slight to moderate chance of showers or thunderstorms—conditions that limit strong daytime heating. Recent observations show a cooling trend after early-August peaks above 35 °C, with August 28–29 highs near 29–33 °C under similar overcast, humid patterns.
This setup reflects typical late-summer transitional weather in the Kanto region, where cloud cover and moisture moderate temperatures below the seasonal peak (often 31–33 °C). Resolution depends on the official JMA maximum at the Tokyo station; updated model runs and the final 24-hour forecast before August 31 will provide the clearest signals for any shifts in these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$10,375結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts position the highest temperature in Tokyo on August 31 around 29–31 °C, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes (30 °C at 40%, 29 °C at 26.5%, 31 °C at 20.5%).**
As of August 29, 2026, models from the Japan Meteorological Agency, Met Office, and others indicate a mostly cloudy day with easterly winds, high humidity, and only a slight to moderate chance of showers or thunderstorms—conditions that limit strong daytime heating. Recent observations show a cooling trend after early-August peaks above 35 °C, with August 28–29 highs near 29–33 °C under similar overcast, humid patterns.
This setup reflects typical late-summer transitional weather in the Kanto region, where cloud cover and moisture moderate temperatures below the seasonal peak (often 31–33 °C). Resolution depends on the official JMA maximum at the Tokyo station; updated model runs and the final 24-hour forecast before August 31 will provide the clearest signals for any shifts in these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$10,375結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ET**Recent forecasts position the highest temperature in Tokyo on August 31 around 29–31 °C, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes (30 °C at 40%, 29 °C at 26.5%, 31 °C at 20.5%).** As of August 29, 2026, models from the Japan Meteorological Agency, Met Office, and others indicate a mostly cloudy day with easterly winds, high humidity, and only a slight to moderate chance of showers or thunderstorms—conditions that limit strong daytime heating. Recent observations show a cooling trend after early-August peaks above 35 °C, with August 28–29 highs near 29–33 °C under similar overcast, humid patterns. This setup reflects typical late-summer transitional weather in the Kanto region, where cloud cover and moisture moderate temperatures below the seasonal peak (often 31–33 °C). Resolution depends on the official JMA maximum at the Tokyo station; updated model runs and the final 24-hour forecast before August 31 will provide the clearest signals for any shifts in these implied probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions