Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international sources indicate a minimum temperature near 20°C for Tokyo on August 30, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and northerly flow that limits overnight radiational cooling following the 20.0°C low recorded on August 29. This consensus aligns with the market’s 91.5% implied probability for 20°C, reflecting aggregated trader assessment of ensemble outputs and historical analogs for late-August conditions under similar synoptic patterns. A clearer sky or stronger northerly advection could allow the temperature to dip to 19°C or below, while unexpected southerly shifts might keep the low above 21°C; updated model runs and official briefings through the evening of August 29 will provide the next key data points for resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月30日東京最低溫度？
8月30日東京最低溫度？
20°C 97%
18°C 1.6%
19°C 1.4%
21°C <1%
最新
$13,233 交易量
最新
$13,233 交易量
2026-08-30
17°C or below
1%
18°C
2%
19°C
1%
20°C
97%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
20°C 97%
18°C 1.6%
19°C 1.4%
21°C <1%
最新
$13,233 交易量
最新
$13,233 交易量
2026-08-30
17°C or below
$674 交易量
1%
18°C
$983 交易量
2%
19°C
$938 交易量
1%
20°C
$1,355 交易量
97%
21°C
$2,710 交易量
1%
22°C
$3,699 交易量
<1%
23°C
$1,629 交易量
<1%
24°C
$392 交易量
<1%
25°C
$351 交易量
<1%
26°C
$247 交易量
<1%
27°C or higher
$252 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international sources indicate a minimum temperature near 20°C for Tokyo on August 30, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and northerly flow that limits overnight radiational cooling following the 20.0°C low recorded on August 29. This consensus aligns with the market’s 91.5% implied probability for 20°C, reflecting aggregated trader assessment of ensemble outputs and historical analogs for late-August conditions under similar synoptic patterns. A clearer sky or stronger northerly advection could allow the temperature to dip to 19°C or below, while unexpected southerly shifts might keep the low above 21°C; updated model runs and official briefings through the evening of August 29 will provide the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$13,233結束日期
2026-08-30市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international sources indicate a minimum temperature near 20°C for Tokyo on August 30, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and northerly flow that limits overnight radiational cooling following the 20.0°C low recorded on August 29. This consensus aligns with the market’s 91.5% implied probability for 20°C, reflecting aggregated trader assessment of ensemble outputs and historical analogs for late-August conditions under similar synoptic patterns. A clearer sky or stronger northerly advection could allow the temperature to dip to 19°C or below, while unexpected southerly shifts might keep the low above 21°C; updated model runs and official briefings through the evening of August 29 will provide the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$13,233結束日期
2026-08-30市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETForecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international sources indicate a minimum temperature near 20°C for Tokyo on August 30, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and northerly flow that limits overnight radiational cooling following the 20.0°C low recorded on August 29. This consensus aligns with the market’s 91.5% implied probability for 20°C, reflecting aggregated trader assessment of ensemble outputs and historical analogs for late-August conditions under similar synoptic patterns. A clearer sky or stronger northerly advection could allow the temperature to dip to 19°C or below, while unexpected southerly shifts might keep the low above 21°C; updated model runs and official briefings through the evening of August 29 will provide the next key data points for resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions