Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs indicate a daytime high near 28–29°C for Tokyo on May 18 under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow, positioning 28°C or higher as the leading outcome at 51% implied probability. This exceeds the mid-May climatological normal of 22–24°C at the Otemachi reference station, driven by above-average insolation and a strengthening subtropical ridge that limits cloud cover and enhances afternoon heating. Trader positioning also reflects uncertainty from possible scattered showers, which could cap temperatures near 27°C at 28.5% probability if they arrive earlier than currently modeled. Updated JMA guidance and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月18日東京氣溫最高？
5月18日東京氣溫最高？
28°C or higher 51%
27°C 31%
26°C 16%
25°C 3.1%
最新
最新
2026-05-18
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
3%
26°C
16%
27°C
31%
28°C or higher
51%
28°C or higher 51%
27°C 31%
26°C 16%
25°C 3.1%
最新
最新
2026-05-18
18°C or below
$1,472 交易量
<1%
19°C
$1,108 交易量
<1%
20°C
$1,081 交易量
<1%
21°C
$595 交易量
<1%
22°C
$479 交易量
<1%
23°C
$853 交易量
1%
24°C
$1,423 交易量
3%
25°C
$527 交易量
3%
26°C
$578 交易量
16%
27°C
$675 交易量
31%
28°C or higher
$713 交易量
51%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs indicate a daytime high near 28–29°C for Tokyo on May 18 under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow, positioning 28°C or higher as the leading outcome at 51% implied probability. This exceeds the mid-May climatological normal of 22–24°C at the Otemachi reference station, driven by above-average insolation and a strengthening subtropical ridge that limits cloud cover and enhances afternoon heating. Trader positioning also reflects uncertainty from possible scattered showers, which could cap temperatures near 27°C at 28.5% probability if they arrive earlier than currently modeled. Updated JMA guidance and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
交易量
$9,494結束日期
2026-05-18市場開放時間
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs indicate a daytime high near 28–29°C for Tokyo on May 18 under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow, positioning 28°C or higher as the leading outcome at 51% implied probability. This exceeds the mid-May climatological normal of 22–24°C at the Otemachi reference station, driven by above-average insolation and a strengthening subtropical ridge that limits cloud cover and enhances afternoon heating. Trader positioning also reflects uncertainty from possible scattered showers, which could cap temperatures near 27°C at 28.5% probability if they arrive earlier than currently modeled. Updated JMA guidance and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$9,494結束日期
2026-05-18市場開放時間
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETRecent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs indicate a daytime high near 28–29°C for Tokyo on May 18 under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow, positioning 28°C or higher as the leading outcome at 51% implied probability. This exceeds the mid-May climatological normal of 22–24°C at the Otemachi reference station, driven by above-average insolation and a strengthening subtropical ridge that limits cloud cover and enhances afternoon heating. Trader positioning also reflects uncertainty from possible scattered showers, which could cap temperatures near 27°C at 28.5% probability if they arrive earlier than currently modeled. Updated JMA guidance and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions