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地緣政治·伊朗停火

以色列在……前撤出黎巴嫩？

icon for 以色列在……前撤出黎巴嫩？
地緣政治·伊朗停火

以色列在……前撤出黎巴嫩？

$1,543,551 交易量

2026-06-30
Polymarket

$1,543,551 交易量

Polymarket

5月31日

$1,237,306 交易量

1%

6月30日

$231,239 交易量

7%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Ongoing US-brokered ceasefire talks between Israel and Lebanon, extended by 45 days through late June 2026 after Washington meetings, remain the central driver of trader positioning on withdrawal timelines. Israel has conducted airstrikes and established positions along a southern buffer zone inside Lebanese territory, while Lebanese officials including Prime Minister Nawaf Salam insist any agreement must include full Israeli troop withdrawal, border demarcation, and resolution of displacement issues. Further negotiations scheduled for early June could advance security and political tracks, yet persistent military operations and demands for a lasting buffer zone continue to signal delays. These factors align with trader consensus favoring extended Israeli presence beyond immediate deadlines amid fragile de-escalation efforts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
交易量
$1,543,551
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Ongoing US-brokered ceasefire talks between Israel and Lebanon, extended by 45 days through late June 2026 after Washington meetings, remain the central driver of trader positioning on withdrawal timelines. Israel has conducted airstrikes and established positions along a southern buffer zone inside Lebanese territory, while Lebanese officials including Prime Minister Nawaf Salam insist any agreement must include full Israeli troop withdrawal, border demarcation, and resolution of displacement issues. Further negotiations scheduled for early June could advance security and political tracks, yet persistent military operations and demands for a lasting buffer zone continue to signal delays. These factors align with trader consensus favoring extended Israeli presence beyond immediate deadlines amid fragile de-escalation efforts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
交易量
$1,543,551
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"以色列在……前撤出黎巴嫩？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "6月30日" at 7%, followed by "5月31日" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 7¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 7% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "以色列在……前撤出黎巴嫩？" has generated $1.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "以色列在……前撤出黎巴嫩？," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "以色列在……前撤出黎巴嫩？" is "6月30日" at just 7%, with "5月31日" close behind at 1%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "以色列在……前撤出黎巴嫩？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.