Ongoing Israeli military operations and the establishment of a security buffer zone several kilometers into southern Lebanon have sharply lowered expectations for a prompt withdrawal. Recent airstrikes and ground advances, coupled with Hezbollah's continued cross-border attacks and rejection of partial deals, have reinforced Israel's position that full disengagement requires stronger guarantees on border security and militia disarmament. US-brokered ceasefire talks in Washington face hurdles over Lebanon's insistence on complete Israeli troop pullback before further negotiations, while UNIFIL's extended mandate through late 2026 and upcoming diplomatic briefings add layers of procedural complexity. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched positions, with limited near-term catalysts likely to shift momentum absent major diplomatic breakthroughs or escalation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$1,543,294 交易量
2026-06-30
5月31日
1%
6月30日
7%
$1,543,294 交易量
5月31日
$1,237,290 交易量
1%
6月30日
$230,998 交易量
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Ongoing Israeli military operations and the establishment of a security buffer zone several kilometers into southern Lebanon have sharply lowered expectations for a prompt withdrawal. Recent airstrikes and ground advances, coupled with Hezbollah's continued cross-border attacks and rejection of partial deals, have reinforced Israel's position that full disengagement requires stronger guarantees on border security and militia disarmament. US-brokered ceasefire talks in Washington face hurdles over Lebanon's insistence on complete Israeli troop pullback before further negotiations, while UNIFIL's extended mandate through late 2026 and upcoming diplomatic briefings add layers of procedural complexity. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched positions, with limited near-term catalysts likely to shift momentum absent major diplomatic breakthroughs or escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
交易量
$1,543,294結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Ongoing Israeli military operations and the establishment of a security buffer zone several kilometers into southern Lebanon have sharply lowered expectations for a prompt withdrawal. Recent airstrikes and ground advances, coupled with Hezbollah's continued cross-border attacks and rejection of partial deals, have reinforced Israel's position that full disengagement requires stronger guarantees on border security and militia disarmament. US-brokered ceasefire talks in Washington face hurdles over Lebanon's insistence on complete Israeli troop pullback before further negotiations, while UNIFIL's extended mandate through late 2026 and upcoming diplomatic briefings add layers of procedural complexity. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched positions, with limited near-term catalysts likely to shift momentum absent major diplomatic breakthroughs or escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
交易量
$1,543,294結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing Israeli military operations and the establishment of a security buffer zone several kilometers into southern Lebanon have sharply lowered expectations for a prompt withdrawal. Recent airstrikes and ground advances, coupled with Hezbollah's continued cross-border attacks and rejection of partial deals, have reinforced Israel's position that full disengagement requires stronger guarantees on border security and militia disarmament. US-brokered ceasefire talks in Washington face hurdles over Lebanon's insistence on complete Israeli troop pullback before further negotiations, while UNIFIL's extended mandate through late 2026 and upcoming diplomatic briefings add layers of procedural complexity. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched positions, with limited near-term catalysts likely to shift momentum absent major diplomatic breakthroughs or escalation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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