Élodie Murphy-Gauthier of the Parti Québécois holds the highest implied probability in trader consensus for the Laviolette–Saint-Maurice seat in the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election, ahead of Guy Veillette of the Coalition avenir Québec. Recent projections from models updated in mid-September show the PQ leading or competitive in the riding with roughly 32 percent support, compared with about 28-30 percent for the CAQ, reflecting a shift from the CAQ’s 2022 majority in the redistributed district. Murphy-Gauthier, a family physician who secured her nomination early and launched her campaign in April emphasizing healthcare access and public services, benefits from the party’s broader momentum in Mauricie. Veillette, a longtime local journalist and former political attaché to the retiring CAQ incumbent Marie-Louise Tardif, anchors the CAQ effort but faces headwinds from provincial trends. Other candidates, including those from the Conservatives, Liberals, and Québec solidaire, register minimal market pricing consistent with lower projected vote shares. The contest remains within a narrow range where late-campaign developments or turnout in key areas such as Shawinigan could still influence the outcome before polls close.