**Cape Town's winter positioning in the Southern Hemisphere drives the market's overwhelming consensus on an 8°C or below minimum for August 26.** Official forecasts and model consensus from sources like the South African Weather Service and international numerical models (e.g., GFS, ECMWF) indicate radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies overnight, with light winds and dew points supporting surface temperatures dropping into the single digits Celsius. Historical August climatology shows typical nighttime lows of 8–12°C at Cape Town International Airport, reinforced by recent cold-front passages earlier in the month that established cooler air masses. Trader-implied odds reflect this alignment of seasonal norms, current synoptic patterns, and real-time observational trends. Scenarios that could realistically challenge the outcome include unexpected warm advection from a strengthening northwest flow, increased cloud cover trapping heat, or measurement discrepancies at official stations versus microclimates. New model runs or late-evening observations could introduce minor uncertainty near the threshold.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月26日開普敦最低溫度？
8月26日開普敦最低溫度？
8°C或以下 100.0%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$6,034 交易量
$6,034 交易量
2026-08-26
8°C或以下
是
9°C
否
10°C
否
11°C
否
12°C
否
13°C
否
14°C
否
15°C
否
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C或以上
否
8°C或以下 100.0%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$6,034 交易量
$6,034 交易量
2026-08-26
8°C或以下
$3,331 交易量
是
9°C
$511 交易量
否
10°C
$431 交易量
否
11°C
$337 交易量
否
12°C
$168 交易量
否
13°C
$179 交易量
否
14°C
$137 交易量
否
15°C
$25 交易量
否
16°C
$285 交易量
否
17°C
$345 交易量
否
18°C或以上
$285 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Cape Town's winter positioning in the Southern Hemisphere drives the market's overwhelming consensus on an 8°C or below minimum for August 26.** Official forecasts and model consensus from sources like the South African Weather Service and international numerical models (e.g., GFS, ECMWF) indicate radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies overnight, with light winds and dew points supporting surface temperatures dropping into the single digits Celsius. Historical August climatology shows typical nighttime lows of 8–12°C at Cape Town International Airport, reinforced by recent cold-front passages earlier in the month that established cooler air masses. Trader-implied odds reflect this alignment of seasonal norms, current synoptic patterns, and real-time observational trends.
Scenarios that could realistically challenge the outcome include unexpected warm advection from a strengthening northwest flow, increased cloud cover trapping heat, or measurement discrepancies at official stations versus microclimates. New model runs or late-evening observations could introduce minor uncertainty near the threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 24, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
交易量
$6,034結束日期
2026-08-26市場開放時間
Aug 24, 2026, 12:31 AM ET已提議結果: 是
無爭議
最終結果: 是
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Cape Town's winter positioning in the Southern Hemisphere drives the market's overwhelming consensus on an 8°C or below minimum for August 26.** Official forecasts and model consensus from sources like the South African Weather Service and international numerical models (e.g., GFS, ECMWF) indicate radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies overnight, with light winds and dew points supporting surface temperatures dropping into the single digits Celsius. Historical August climatology shows typical nighttime lows of 8–12°C at Cape Town International Airport, reinforced by recent cold-front passages earlier in the month that established cooler air masses. Trader-implied odds reflect this alignment of seasonal norms, current synoptic patterns, and real-time observational trends.
Scenarios that could realistically challenge the outcome include unexpected warm advection from a strengthening northwest flow, increased cloud cover trapping heat, or measurement discrepancies at official stations versus microclimates. New model runs or late-evening observations could introduce minor uncertainty near the threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$6,034結束日期
2026-08-26市場開放時間
Aug 24, 2026, 12:31 AM ET已提議結果: 是
無爭議
最終結果: 是
**Cape Town's winter positioning in the Southern Hemisphere drives the market's overwhelming consensus on an 8°C or below minimum for August 26.** Official forecasts and model consensus from sources like the South African Weather Service and international numerical models (e.g., GFS, ECMWF) indicate radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies overnight, with light winds and dew points supporting surface temperatures dropping into the single digits Celsius. Historical August climatology shows typical nighttime lows of 8–12°C at Cape Town International Airport, reinforced by recent cold-front passages earlier in the month that established cooler air masses. Trader-implied odds reflect this alignment of seasonal norms, current synoptic patterns, and real-time observational trends. Scenarios that could realistically challenge the outcome include unexpected warm advection from a strengthening northwest flow, increased cloud cover trapping heat, or measurement discrepancies at official stations versus microclimates. New model runs or late-evening observations could introduce minor uncertainty near the threshold.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions