Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 28°C minimum for Hong Kong on August 18, 2026, because official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and supporting meteorological models consistently projected overnight lows in that narrow range. Persistent cloud cover, high relative humidity near 70–90 percent, and light southerly flows limited nocturnal radiative cooling typical of the region’s subtropical summer climate. This aligns with August climatology, where average lows hover around 26–28°C, and recent model runs showed daily ranges of roughly 28–32°C without signs of significant cooling or a cold surge. The strong market-implied probability reflects this evidence-based stability. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted clear-sky episode or sharp wind shift that enhanced heat loss, though such shifts remain unlikely given the prevailing pattern and short forecast horizon.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月18日香港最低溫度？
8月18日香港最低溫度？
28°C 100.0%
23°C或以下 <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$42,457 交易量
$42,457 交易量
2026-08-18
23°C或以下
否
24°C
否
25°C
否
26°C
否
27°C
否
28°C
是
29°C
否
30°C
否
31°C
否
32°C
否
33°C或以上
否
28°C 100.0%
23°C或以下 <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$42,457 交易量
$42,457 交易量
2026-08-18
23°C或以下
$1,049 交易量
否
24°C
$2,074 交易量
否
25°C
$8,220 交易量
否
26°C
$4,906 交易量
否
27°C
$7,576 交易量
否
28°C
$10,431 交易量
是
29°C
$5,371 交易量
否
30°C
$715 交易量
否
31°C
$506 交易量
否
32°C
$545 交易量
否
33°C或以上
$1,063 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 28°C minimum for Hong Kong on August 18, 2026, because official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and supporting meteorological models consistently projected overnight lows in that narrow range. Persistent cloud cover, high relative humidity near 70–90 percent, and light southerly flows limited nocturnal radiative cooling typical of the region’s subtropical summer climate. This aligns with August climatology, where average lows hover around 26–28°C, and recent model runs showed daily ranges of roughly 28–32°C without signs of significant cooling or a cold surge. The strong market-implied probability reflects this evidence-based stability. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted clear-sky episode or sharp wind shift that enhanced heat loss, though such shifts remain unlikely given the prevailing pattern and short forecast horizon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
交易量
$42,457結束日期
2026-08-18市場開放時間
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 28°C minimum for Hong Kong on August 18, 2026, because official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and supporting meteorological models consistently projected overnight lows in that narrow range. Persistent cloud cover, high relative humidity near 70–90 percent, and light southerly flows limited nocturnal radiative cooling typical of the region’s subtropical summer climate. This aligns with August climatology, where average lows hover around 26–28°C, and recent model runs showed daily ranges of roughly 28–32°C without signs of significant cooling or a cold surge. The strong market-implied probability reflects this evidence-based stability. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted clear-sky episode or sharp wind shift that enhanced heat loss, though such shifts remain unlikely given the prevailing pattern and short forecast horizon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$42,457結束日期
2026-08-18市場開放時間
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 28°C minimum for Hong Kong on August 18, 2026, because official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and supporting meteorological models consistently projected overnight lows in that narrow range. Persistent cloud cover, high relative humidity near 70–90 percent, and light southerly flows limited nocturnal radiative cooling typical of the region’s subtropical summer climate. This aligns with August climatology, where average lows hover around 26–28°C, and recent model runs showed daily ranges of roughly 28–32°C without signs of significant cooling or a cold surge. The strong market-implied probability reflects this evidence-based stability. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted clear-sky episode or sharp wind shift that enhanced heat loss, though such shifts remain unlikely given the prevailing pattern and short forecast horizon.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions