Skip to main content
icon for 5月18日香港最低溫度？

5月18日香港最低溫度？

icon for 5月18日香港最低溫度？

5月18日香港最低溫度？

5月 15

5月 16

5月 17

5月 18

5月 15

5月 16

5月 17

5月 18

24°C 39%

25°C 38%

23°C 11%

26°C 4.3%

Polymarket
最新

24°C 39%

25°C 38%

23°C 11%

26°C 4.3%

Polymarket
最新

18°C或以下

$314 交易量

<1%

19°C

$379 交易量

<1%

20°C

$158 交易量

<1%

21°C

$123 交易量

<1%

22°C

$125 交易量

1%

23°C

$145 交易量

11%

24°C

$61 交易量

44%

25°C

$117 交易量

38%

26°C

$900 交易量

4%

27°C

$559 交易量

1%

28°C或以上

$266 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest numerical weather prediction models from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a minimum temperature of 24–25°C for May 18 under a stable subtropical high-pressure regime favoring clear to partly cloudy skies and moderate overnight radiative cooling. This consensus aligns with mid-May climatology, where sea surface temperatures near 27–28°C in the South China Sea set a thermal floor that rarely allows lows below 23°C amid typical southerly flow and residual moisture. Traders price the 24°C outcome highest at 46% and 25°C at 38% because small variations in cloud cover or wind speed can shift the exact minimum by one degree, while broader model agreement keeps probabilities for 23°C or 26°C much lower. Updated runs tonight will refine the final range before the market resolves based on official observatory readings.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$3,146
結束日期
2026-05-18
市場開放時間
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest numerical weather prediction models from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a minimum temperature of 24–25°C for May 18 under a stable subtropical high-pressure regime favoring clear to partly cloudy skies and moderate overnight radiative cooling. This consensus aligns with mid-May climatology, where sea surface temperatures near 27–28°C in the South China Sea set a thermal floor that rarely allows lows below 23°C amid typical southerly flow and residual moisture. Traders price the 24°C outcome highest at 46% and 25°C at 38% because small variations in cloud cover or wind speed can shift the exact minimum by one degree, while broader model agreement keeps probabilities for 23°C or 26°C much lower. Updated runs tonight will refine the final range before the market resolves based on official observatory readings.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$3,146
結束日期
2026-05-18
市場開放時間
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"5月18日香港最低溫度？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "24°C" at 44%, followed by "25°C" at 38%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"5月18日香港最低溫度？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "5月18日香港最低溫度？," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "5月18日香港最低溫度？" is "24°C" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "25°C" at 38%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "5月18日香港最低溫度？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.