**Latest forecasts from global models such as GFS place Istanbul’s overnight low near 21–22°C under mostly clear skies and light northeasterly flow, supporting the market’s strong preference for 22°C at 57% implied probability.** Stable high pressure and the absence of significant frontal systems or cloud cover have kept temperatures above the early-September climatological minimum of roughly 17°C, with current observations showing early-morning readings already in the low-22°C range. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around this value, and no rapid cooling is expected before dawn on September 4. Traders are therefore assigning only modest probability to 20°C (14%) and very low odds to 17°C or below (5.2%), reflecting both the model consensus and the short time remaining until the daily minimum is recorded by official stations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月3日伊斯坦布爾最低溫度？
9月3日伊斯坦布爾最低溫度？
22°C 99%
20°C 20%
21°C 5%
18°C 1.0%
$3,224 交易量
$3,224 交易量
2026-09-03
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C or higher
No
22°C 99%
20°C 20%
21°C 5%
18°C 1.0%
$3,224 交易量
$3,224 交易量
2026-09-03
17°C or below
$767 交易量
No
18°C
$49 交易量
No
19°C
$803 交易量
No
20°C
$121 交易量
No
21°C
$102 交易量
No
22°C
$143 交易量
Yes
23°C
$230 交易量
No
24°C
$369 交易量
No
25°C
$45 交易量
No
26°C
$507 交易量
No
27°C or higher
$90 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest forecasts from global models such as GFS place Istanbul’s overnight low near 21–22°C under mostly clear skies and light northeasterly flow, supporting the market’s strong preference for 22°C at 57% implied probability.**
Stable high pressure and the absence of significant frontal systems or cloud cover have kept temperatures above the early-September climatological minimum of roughly 17°C, with current observations showing early-morning readings already in the low-22°C range. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around this value, and no rapid cooling is expected before dawn on September 4. Traders are therefore assigning only modest probability to 20°C (14%) and very low odds to 17°C or below (5.2%), reflecting both the model consensus and the short time remaining until the daily minimum is recorded by official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$3,224結束日期
2026-09-03市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest forecasts from global models such as GFS place Istanbul’s overnight low near 21–22°C under mostly clear skies and light northeasterly flow, supporting the market’s strong preference for 22°C at 57% implied probability.**
Stable high pressure and the absence of significant frontal systems or cloud cover have kept temperatures above the early-September climatological minimum of roughly 17°C, with current observations showing early-morning readings already in the low-22°C range. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around this value, and no rapid cooling is expected before dawn on September 4. Traders are therefore assigning only modest probability to 20°C (14%) and very low odds to 17°C or below (5.2%), reflecting both the model consensus and the short time remaining until the daily minimum is recorded by official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$3,224結束日期
2026-09-03市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
**Latest forecasts from global models such as GFS place Istanbul’s overnight low near 21–22°C under mostly clear skies and light northeasterly flow, supporting the market’s strong preference for 22°C at 57% implied probability.** Stable high pressure and the absence of significant frontal systems or cloud cover have kept temperatures above the early-September climatological minimum of roughly 17°C, with current observations showing early-morning readings already in the low-22°C range. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around this value, and no rapid cooling is expected before dawn on September 4. Traders are therefore assigning only modest probability to 20°C (14%) and very low odds to 17°C or below (5.2%), reflecting both the model consensus and the short time remaining until the daily minimum is recorded by official stations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions