**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature in Milan on August 22, 2026, most likely between 14–17 °C, consistent with the closely bunched market-implied odds around those levels.** Overnight radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies will drive the low after any evening showers on the 21st clear, with light north-easterly winds (around 4–9 mph per current guidance) limiting mixing. Higher humidity and the urban heat island of Milan moderate the drop relative to rural sites, while any lingering cloud cover or weak frontal passage could raise the floor by 1–2 °C. Model consensus from sources such as the Met Office and BBC shows overnight lows near 16–21 °C, with typical August climatology (average low ~17–19 °C) providing the baseline. Small differences among 14 °C, 15 °C, 16 °C, and 17 °C outcomes hinge on precise cloud timing, wind speed, and boundary-layer moisture—variables that numerical weather prediction ensembles still show modest spread less than 48 hours out. Traders are weighting the most probable central range while discounting extremes below 12 °C or above 18 °C given the stable summer pattern and limited cold-air advection.