Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Qingdao's August 31 nighttime low will likely fall between 21–23 °C under partly cloudy skies and light northerly flow, consistent with late-summer coastal norms near 22 °C. Recent northerly winds and scattered rainfall through August 29–30 have suppressed daytime maxima and promoted modest radiative cooling overnight, while clearing conditions on the 31st should limit further drops. Historical August minima rarely dip below 20 °C absent strong cold advection, and current ensemble guidance shows limited spread around these values. Market-implied odds favoring 18 °C or below at 45.5 % therefore appear driven by residual model uncertainty or tail-risk scenarios rather than the dominant forecast consensus. Updated NMC or ECMWF runs over the next 48 hours will be the key catalyst for any further probability shifts.