Current meteorological observations and forecast models for Warsaw on September 1, 2026, indicate overnight minimum temperatures stabilizing near 15°C under partly cloudy skies with light westerly winds and moderate humidity. Real-time station data and GFS ensemble outputs show daytime highs around 21–23°C transitioning to nocturnal cooling that aligns with this threshold, consistent with early-September climatology adjusted for the prevailing synoptic pattern. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 15°C reflects this strong model agreement and observed trends, with only negligible odds on 22°C or higher. A realistic challenge could arise from stronger radiative cooling under clearing skies or an unanticipated cold air advection, potentially dropping the minimum below the expected value, though current atmospheric stability makes such shifts unlikely before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月1日華沙的最低溫度？
9月1日華沙的最低溫度？
15°C 99%
13°C 1.0%
14°C 1.0%
12°C or below <1%
$6,411 交易量
$6,411 交易量
2026-09-01
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
15°C 99%
13°C 1.0%
14°C 1.0%
12°C or below <1%
$6,411 交易量
$6,411 交易量
2026-09-01
12°C or below
$298 交易量
No
13°C
$26 交易量
No
14°C
$14 交易量
No
15°C
$205 交易量
Yes
16°C
$46 交易量
No
17°C
$4,934 交易量
No
18°C
$35 交易量
No
19°C
$55 交易量
No
20°C
$55 交易量
No
21°C
$80 交易量
No
22°C or higher
$663 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current meteorological observations and forecast models for Warsaw on September 1, 2026, indicate overnight minimum temperatures stabilizing near 15°C under partly cloudy skies with light westerly winds and moderate humidity. Real-time station data and GFS ensemble outputs show daytime highs around 21–23°C transitioning to nocturnal cooling that aligns with this threshold, consistent with early-September climatology adjusted for the prevailing synoptic pattern. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 15°C reflects this strong model agreement and observed trends, with only negligible odds on 22°C or higher. A realistic challenge could arise from stronger radiative cooling under clearing skies or an unanticipated cold air advection, potentially dropping the minimum below the expected value, though current atmospheric stability makes such shifts unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$6,411結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current meteorological observations and forecast models for Warsaw on September 1, 2026, indicate overnight minimum temperatures stabilizing near 15°C under partly cloudy skies with light westerly winds and moderate humidity. Real-time station data and GFS ensemble outputs show daytime highs around 21–23°C transitioning to nocturnal cooling that aligns with this threshold, consistent with early-September climatology adjusted for the prevailing synoptic pattern. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 15°C reflects this strong model agreement and observed trends, with only negligible odds on 22°C or higher. A realistic challenge could arise from stronger radiative cooling under clearing skies or an unanticipated cold air advection, potentially dropping the minimum below the expected value, though current atmospheric stability makes such shifts unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$6,411結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Current meteorological observations and forecast models for Warsaw on September 1, 2026, indicate overnight minimum temperatures stabilizing near 15°C under partly cloudy skies with light westerly winds and moderate humidity. Real-time station data and GFS ensemble outputs show daytime highs around 21–23°C transitioning to nocturnal cooling that aligns with this threshold, consistent with early-September climatology adjusted for the prevailing synoptic pattern. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 15°C reflects this strong model agreement and observed trends, with only negligible odds on 22°C or higher. A realistic challenge could arise from stronger radiative cooling under clearing skies or an unanticipated cold air advection, potentially dropping the minimum below the expected value, though current atmospheric stability makes such shifts unlikely before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions