Recent forecast runs for Wellington highlight substantial uncertainty in the overnight minimum on September 7, with model consensus split between a cooler southeasterly flow behind an approaching front—potentially dropping temperatures to 4–6 °C under clearing skies and lighter winds—and residual warmer northerly advection that could hold lows near 9–10 °C. Official guidance from MetService and international ensembles shows this transition coinciding with widespread rain, while seasonal El Niño influences add variability through enhanced westerly gradients and occasional cold-air outbreaks typical of New Zealand spring. Historical September minima average near 8–9 °C, but the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around both sub-5 °C and double-digit outcomes reflects traders weighting the risk of model divergence in the final 48-hour updates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月7日惠靈頓的最低溫度？
9月7日惠靈頓的最低溫度？
4°C或以下 69%
14°C或以上 69%
6°C 49%
10°C 49%
最新
最新
2026-09-07
4°C或以下
69%
5°C
44%
6°C
49%
7°C
25%
8°C
25%
9°C
26%
10°C
49%
11°C
8%
12°C
2%
13°C
8%
14°C或以上
69%
4°C或以下 69%
14°C或以上 69%
6°C 49%
10°C 49%
最新
最新
2026-09-07
4°C或以下
$0 交易量
69%
5°C
$0 交易量
44%
6°C
$0 交易量
49%
7°C
$0 交易量
25%
8°C
$0 交易量
25%
9°C
$0 交易量
26%
10°C
$0 交易量
49%
11°C
$0 交易量
8%
12°C
$0 交易量
2%
13°C
$0 交易量
8%
14°C或以上
$0 交易量
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast runs for Wellington highlight substantial uncertainty in the overnight minimum on September 7, with model consensus split between a cooler southeasterly flow behind an approaching front—potentially dropping temperatures to 4–6 °C under clearing skies and lighter winds—and residual warmer northerly advection that could hold lows near 9–10 °C. Official guidance from MetService and international ensembles shows this transition coinciding with widespread rain, while seasonal El Niño influences add variability through enhanced westerly gradients and occasional cold-air outbreaks typical of New Zealand spring. Historical September minima average near 8–9 °C, but the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around both sub-5 °C and double-digit outcomes reflects traders weighting the risk of model divergence in the final 48-hour updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-09-07市場開放時間
Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast runs for Wellington highlight substantial uncertainty in the overnight minimum on September 7, with model consensus split between a cooler southeasterly flow behind an approaching front—potentially dropping temperatures to 4–6 °C under clearing skies and lighter winds—and residual warmer northerly advection that could hold lows near 9–10 °C. Official guidance from MetService and international ensembles shows this transition coinciding with widespread rain, while seasonal El Niño influences add variability through enhanced westerly gradients and occasional cold-air outbreaks typical of New Zealand spring. Historical September minima average near 8–9 °C, but the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around both sub-5 °C and double-digit outcomes reflects traders weighting the risk of model divergence in the final 48-hour updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-09-07市場開放時間
Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ETRecent forecast runs for Wellington highlight substantial uncertainty in the overnight minimum on September 7, with model consensus split between a cooler southeasterly flow behind an approaching front—potentially dropping temperatures to 4–6 °C under clearing skies and lighter winds—and residual warmer northerly advection that could hold lows near 9–10 °C. Official guidance from MetService and international ensembles shows this transition coinciding with widespread rain, while seasonal El Niño influences add variability through enhanced westerly gradients and occasional cold-air outbreaks typical of New Zealand spring. Historical September minima average near 8–9 °C, but the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around both sub-5 °C and double-digit outcomes reflects traders weighting the risk of model divergence in the final 48-hour updates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions