**Incumbent Republican Chris Smith, serving NJ-04 since 1981, faces Democrat Rachel Peace in the November 3, 2026 general election.** Smith ran unopposed in the June Republican primary, while Peace won her party's nomination. The district, spanning parts of Monmouth and Ocean counties including Lakewood and Toms River, shows a clear Republican tilt with roughly 38% GOP-registered voters compared to 22% Democrats. Smith captured 67.4% of the vote in 2024, underscoring consistent margins in this longtime safe seat. Trader consensus at 93.5% Republican reflects the incumbent's entrenched position, name recognition, and the district's structural lean rather than any recent polling shifts or campaign events. A Democratic upset would require an unusually strong national tailwind, significant personal issues for Smith, or turnout anomalies not evident in current conditions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-11-02
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
7%
最新
最新
2026-11-02
Republican Party
$5,448 交易量
94%
Democratic Party
$4,026 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Republican Chris Smith, serving NJ-04 since 1981, faces Democrat Rachel Peace in the November 3, 2026 general election.** Smith ran unopposed in the June Republican primary, while Peace won her party's nomination. The district, spanning parts of Monmouth and Ocean counties including Lakewood and Toms River, shows a clear Republican tilt with roughly 38% GOP-registered voters compared to 22% Democrats. Smith captured 67.4% of the vote in 2024, underscoring consistent margins in this longtime safe seat. Trader consensus at 93.5% Republican reflects the incumbent's entrenched position, name recognition, and the district's structural lean rather than any recent polling shifts or campaign events. A Democratic upset would require an unusually strong national tailwind, significant personal issues for Smith, or turnout anomalies not evident in current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$9,474結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Republican Chris Smith, serving NJ-04 since 1981, faces Democrat Rachel Peace in the November 3, 2026 general election.** Smith ran unopposed in the June Republican primary, while Peace won her party's nomination. The district, spanning parts of Monmouth and Ocean counties including Lakewood and Toms River, shows a clear Republican tilt with roughly 38% GOP-registered voters compared to 22% Democrats. Smith captured 67.4% of the vote in 2024, underscoring consistent margins in this longtime safe seat. Trader consensus at 93.5% Republican reflects the incumbent's entrenched position, name recognition, and the district's structural lean rather than any recent polling shifts or campaign events. A Democratic upset would require an unusually strong national tailwind, significant personal issues for Smith, or turnout anomalies not evident in current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$9,474結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Incumbent Republican Chris Smith, serving NJ-04 since 1981, faces Democrat Rachel Peace in the November 3, 2026 general election.** Smith ran unopposed in the June Republican primary, while Peace won her party's nomination. The district, spanning parts of Monmouth and Ocean counties including Lakewood and Toms River, shows a clear Republican tilt with roughly 38% GOP-registered voters compared to 22% Democrats. Smith captured 67.4% of the vote in 2024, underscoring consistent margins in this longtime safe seat. Trader consensus at 93.5% Republican reflects the incumbent's entrenched position, name recognition, and the district's structural lean rather than any recent polling shifts or campaign events. A Democratic upset would require an unusually strong national tailwind, significant personal issues for Smith, or turnout anomalies not evident in current conditions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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