Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle's strong primary win in June 2026, combined with the district's consistent Democratic lean and his substantial fundraising edge, anchors trader consensus for a Democratic hold in the November general election. Race ratings from major forecasters classify the seat as solidly or safely Democratic, reflecting Morelle's prior victories and the Republican nominee's limited resources. The wisdom of crowds in prediction markets prices in these structural advantages. A Republican upset would require an unforeseen national midterm surge, a major scandal or health event affecting Morelle, or a sharp shift in local turnout patterns before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$33,113 交易量
$33,113 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
96%
共和黨
3%
$33,113 交易量
$33,113 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
$22,758 交易量
96%
共和黨
$10,354 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle's strong primary win in June 2026, combined with the district's consistent Democratic lean and his substantial fundraising edge, anchors trader consensus for a Democratic hold in the November general election. Race ratings from major forecasters classify the seat as solidly or safely Democratic, reflecting Morelle's prior victories and the Republican nominee's limited resources. The wisdom of crowds in prediction markets prices in these structural advantages. A Republican upset would require an unforeseen national midterm surge, a major scandal or health event affecting Morelle, or a sharp shift in local turnout patterns before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$33,113結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle's strong primary win in June 2026, combined with the district's consistent Democratic lean and his substantial fundraising edge, anchors trader consensus for a Democratic hold in the November general election. Race ratings from major forecasters classify the seat as solidly or safely Democratic, reflecting Morelle's prior victories and the Republican nominee's limited resources. The wisdom of crowds in prediction markets prices in these structural advantages. A Republican upset would require an unforeseen national midterm surge, a major scandal or health event affecting Morelle, or a sharp shift in local turnout patterns before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$33,113結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETIncumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle's strong primary win in June 2026, combined with the district's consistent Democratic lean and his substantial fundraising edge, anchors trader consensus for a Democratic hold in the November general election. Race ratings from major forecasters classify the seat as solidly or safely Democratic, reflecting Morelle's prior victories and the Republican nominee's limited resources. The wisdom of crowds in prediction markets prices in these structural advantages. A Republican upset would require an unforeseen national midterm surge, a major scandal or health event affecting Morelle, or a sharp shift in local turnout patterns before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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