Internal political divisions within the Kurdistan Regional Government have intensified since the 2025 parliamentary elections, with ongoing deadlock between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan preventing formation of a new regional cabinet more than 18 months later. This stalemate has eroded the KRG’s autonomy, as federal authorities assumed control of oil exports and introduced a nationwide customs system that bypasses Kurdish revenue collection. KRG officials have repeatedly reaffirmed commitment to Iraq’s federal framework and de-escalation amid cross-border strikes tied to the 2026 Kurdish-Iranian tensions, with no legislative action, parliamentary votes, or leadership statements signaling an imminent independence push. Traders therefore assign only an 8.5 percent chance of a declaration by year-end, reflecting the absence of unified momentum or external conditions that would enable such a step.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$52,813 交易量
$52,813 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$52,813 交易量
$52,813 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal political divisions within the Kurdistan Regional Government have intensified since the 2025 parliamentary elections, with ongoing deadlock between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan preventing formation of a new regional cabinet more than 18 months later. This stalemate has eroded the KRG’s autonomy, as federal authorities assumed control of oil exports and introduced a nationwide customs system that bypasses Kurdish revenue collection. KRG officials have repeatedly reaffirmed commitment to Iraq’s federal framework and de-escalation amid cross-border strikes tied to the 2026 Kurdish-Iranian tensions, with no legislative action, parliamentary votes, or leadership statements signaling an imminent independence push. Traders therefore assign only an 8.5 percent chance of a declaration by year-end, reflecting the absence of unified momentum or external conditions that would enable such a step.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$52,813結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal political divisions within the Kurdistan Regional Government have intensified since the 2025 parliamentary elections, with ongoing deadlock between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan preventing formation of a new regional cabinet more than 18 months later. This stalemate has eroded the KRG’s autonomy, as federal authorities assumed control of oil exports and introduced a nationwide customs system that bypasses Kurdish revenue collection. KRG officials have repeatedly reaffirmed commitment to Iraq’s federal framework and de-escalation amid cross-border strikes tied to the 2026 Kurdish-Iranian tensions, with no legislative action, parliamentary votes, or leadership statements signaling an imminent independence push. Traders therefore assign only an 8.5 percent chance of a declaration by year-end, reflecting the absence of unified momentum or external conditions that would enable such a step.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$52,813結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Internal political divisions within the Kurdistan Regional Government have intensified since the 2025 parliamentary elections, with ongoing deadlock between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan preventing formation of a new regional cabinet more than 18 months later. This stalemate has eroded the KRG’s autonomy, as federal authorities assumed control of oil exports and introduced a nationwide customs system that bypasses Kurdish revenue collection. KRG officials have repeatedly reaffirmed commitment to Iraq’s federal framework and de-escalation amid cross-border strikes tied to the 2026 Kurdish-Iranian tensions, with no legislative action, parliamentary votes, or leadership statements signaling an imminent independence push. Traders therefore assign only an 8.5 percent chance of a declaration by year-end, reflecting the absence of unified momentum or external conditions that would enable such a step.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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