Recent diplomatic frictions, including South Africa's March 2026 summons of the new U.S. ambassador over policy remarks and early-May tensions in Lebanon regarding security alliances, resolved through standard demarches and bilateral consultations rather than persona non grata declarations. U.S. recalls of nearly thirty career envoys in January 2026 across Africa, Asia, and Europe prompted no reciprocal expulsions from host governments. Ongoing ceasefire talks in the Middle East and routine policy engagements in Africa have stayed below escalation thresholds for formal ambassador removals. With many U.S. posts still vacant amid Senate confirmation delays and no new espionage cases or severed ties since mid-April, trader consensus at 72.5% for no expulsion by year-end reflects the absence of acute bilateral crises required to trigger such actions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$15,172 交易量
$15,172 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$15,172 交易量
$15,172 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent diplomatic frictions, including South Africa's March 2026 summons of the new U.S. ambassador over policy remarks and early-May tensions in Lebanon regarding security alliances, resolved through standard demarches and bilateral consultations rather than persona non grata declarations. U.S. recalls of nearly thirty career envoys in January 2026 across Africa, Asia, and Europe prompted no reciprocal expulsions from host governments. Ongoing ceasefire talks in the Middle East and routine policy engagements in Africa have stayed below escalation thresholds for formal ambassador removals. With many U.S. posts still vacant amid Senate confirmation delays and no new espionage cases or severed ties since mid-April, trader consensus at 72.5% for no expulsion by year-end reflects the absence of acute bilateral crises required to trigger such actions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
交易量
$15,172結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent diplomatic frictions, including South Africa's March 2026 summons of the new U.S. ambassador over policy remarks and early-May tensions in Lebanon regarding security alliances, resolved through standard demarches and bilateral consultations rather than persona non grata declarations. U.S. recalls of nearly thirty career envoys in January 2026 across Africa, Asia, and Europe prompted no reciprocal expulsions from host governments. Ongoing ceasefire talks in the Middle East and routine policy engagements in Africa have stayed below escalation thresholds for formal ambassador removals. With many U.S. posts still vacant amid Senate confirmation delays and no new espionage cases or severed ties since mid-April, trader consensus at 72.5% for no expulsion by year-end reflects the absence of acute bilateral crises required to trigger such actions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$15,172結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic frictions, including South Africa's March 2026 summons of the new U.S. ambassador over policy remarks and early-May tensions in Lebanon regarding security alliances, resolved through standard demarches and bilateral consultations rather than persona non grata declarations. U.S. recalls of nearly thirty career envoys in January 2026 across Africa, Asia, and Europe prompted no reciprocal expulsions from host governments. Ongoing ceasefire talks in the Middle East and routine policy engagements in Africa have stayed below escalation thresholds for formal ambassador removals. With many U.S. posts still vacant amid Senate confirmation delays and no new espionage cases or severed ties since mid-April, trader consensus at 72.5% for no expulsion by year-end reflects the absence of acute bilateral crises required to trigger such actions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions