Recent expulsions of Iranian diplomats by Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and other Gulf states in March, along with Argentina’s April action against Iran’s charge d’affaires, have not triggered follow-on measures in the past six weeks. These steps responded to missile strikes, proxy tensions, and security concerns, yet no comparable official declarations of persona non grata have surfaced since early April. With the June 30 deadline still more than six weeks away and no new verified diplomatic incidents or public announcements from major capitals, traders assign a 76.5 percent probability that another expulsion will not occur by that date, reflecting expectations of a temporary lull in such actions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-06-30
最新
最新
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent expulsions of Iranian diplomats by Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and other Gulf states in March, along with Argentina’s April action against Iran’s charge d’affaires, have not triggered follow-on measures in the past six weeks. These steps responded to missile strikes, proxy tensions, and security concerns, yet no comparable official declarations of persona non grata have surfaced since early April. With the June 30 deadline still more than six weeks away and no new verified diplomatic incidents or public announcements from major capitals, traders assign a 76.5 percent probability that another expulsion will not occur by that date, reflecting expectations of a temporary lull in such actions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
交易量
$7,650结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent expulsions of Iranian diplomats by Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and other Gulf states in March, along with Argentina’s April action against Iran’s charge d’affaires, have not triggered follow-on measures in the past six weeks. These steps responded to missile strikes, proxy tensions, and security concerns, yet no comparable official declarations of persona non grata have surfaced since early April. With the June 30 deadline still more than six weeks away and no new verified diplomatic incidents or public announcements from major capitals, traders assign a 76.5 percent probability that another expulsion will not occur by that date, reflecting expectations of a temporary lull in such actions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$7,650结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent expulsions of Iranian diplomats by Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and other Gulf states in March, along with Argentina’s April action against Iran’s charge d’affaires, have not triggered follow-on measures in the past six weeks. These steps responded to missile strikes, proxy tensions, and security concerns, yet no comparable official declarations of persona non grata have surfaced since early April. With the June 30 deadline still more than six weeks away and no new verified diplomatic incidents or public announcements from major capitals, traders assign a 76.5 percent probability that another expulsion will not occur by that date, reflecting expectations of a temporary lull in such actions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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