Austin Rogers leads the FL-02 Republican primary field with 77% implied probability, driven by his consistent gains in recent polling and substantial fundraising advantage. A late August 10–11 survey showed him at 25% support among likely voters, ahead of Evan Power at 15% and others, reflecting stronger name recognition as a Panama City native and former general counsel to U.S. Sen. Rick Scott. Keith Gross, once viewed as the early frontrunner, has fallen to 18% amid weaker recent survey results. The August 18 primary date leaves limited time for shifts, though undecided voters and any final campaign developments could influence the outcome before polls close.