Byron Donalds holds a substantial lead in recent polling for the August 18 Republican primary, buoyed by a Trump endorsement and superior fundraising, yet the market reflects uncertainty over whether he reaches 40 percent amid a crowded field that includes Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and James Fishback. Vote fragmentation among multiple qualified candidates, including lower-polling entrants like Paul Renner, creates potential for a tighter result than aggregate surveys suggest. Opponent attacks on Donalds and lingering undecided voters near 30-40 percent in some samples further compress expected margins. High early turnout or last-minute consolidation behind frontrunners could widen the gap, while sustained splits or turnout surprises among conservative factions might keep Donalds below key thresholds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Donalds 40%+ 45%
Donalds 35–40% 16%
Donalds 30–35% 16%
Donalds 25–30% 3.5%
$21,803 交易量
$21,803 交易量
2026-08-18
Donalds 40%+
45%
Donalds 35–40%
16%
Donalds 30–35%
16%
Donalds 25–30%
4%
Donalds 20–25%
3%
唐纳兹15-20%
3%
唐纳兹10-15%
2%
唐纳兹 5–10%
3%
唐纳兹<5%
<1%
柯林斯获胜
<1%
菲什巴克获胜
1%
Donalds 40%+ 45%
Donalds 35–40% 16%
Donalds 30–35% 16%
Donalds 25–30% 3.5%
$21,803 交易量
$21,803 交易量
2026-08-18
Donalds 40%+
$11,467 交易量
45%
Donalds 35–40%
$6,359 交易量
16%
Donalds 30–35%
$694 交易量
16%
Donalds 25–30%
$436 交易量
4%
Donalds 20–25%
$426 交易量
3%
唐纳兹15-20%
$438 交易量
3%
唐纳兹10-15%
$378 交易量
2%
唐纳兹 5–10%
$361 交易量
3%
唐纳兹<5%
$315 交易量
<1%
柯林斯获胜
$466 交易量
<1%
菲什巴克获胜
$463 交易量
1%
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Byron Donalds holds a substantial lead in recent polling for the August 18 Republican primary, buoyed by a Trump endorsement and superior fundraising, yet the market reflects uncertainty over whether he reaches 40 percent amid a crowded field that includes Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and James Fishback. Vote fragmentation among multiple qualified candidates, including lower-polling entrants like Paul Renner, creates potential for a tighter result than aggregate surveys suggest. Opponent attacks on Donalds and lingering undecided voters near 30-40 percent in some samples further compress expected margins. High early turnout or last-minute consolidation behind frontrunners could widen the gap, while sustained splits or turnout surprises among conservative factions might keep Donalds below key thresholds.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
市场开放时间： Aug 13, 2026, 2:19 PM ET
交易量
$21,803结束日期
2026-08-18市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Byron Donalds holds a substantial lead in recent polling for the August 18 Republican primary, buoyed by a Trump endorsement and superior fundraising, yet the market reflects uncertainty over whether he reaches 40 percent amid a crowded field that includes Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and James Fishback. Vote fragmentation among multiple qualified candidates, including lower-polling entrants like Paul Renner, creates potential for a tighter result than aggregate surveys suggest. Opponent attacks on Donalds and lingering undecided voters near 30-40 percent in some samples further compress expected margins. High early turnout or last-minute consolidation behind frontrunners could widen the gap, while sustained splits or turnout surprises among conservative factions might keep Donalds below key thresholds.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
交易量
$21,803结束日期
2026-08-18市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Byron Donalds holds a substantial lead in recent polling for the August 18 Republican primary, buoyed by a Trump endorsement and superior fundraising, yet the market reflects uncertainty over whether he reaches 40 percent amid a crowded field that includes Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and James Fishback. Vote fragmentation among multiple qualified candidates, including lower-polling entrants like Paul Renner, creates potential for a tighter result than aggregate surveys suggest. Opponent attacks on Donalds and lingering undecided voters near 30-40 percent in some samples further compress expected margins. High early turnout or last-minute consolidation behind frontrunners could widen the gap, while sustained splits or turnout surprises among conservative factions might keep Donalds below key thresholds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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