Recent ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and regional models place Chongqing’s May 19 daily maximum most likely in the mid-20s Celsius, aligning with the market’s leading 27 °C (29 %) and 26 °C (24 %) outcomes. Persistent low-level moisture and light southerly flow are expected to limit afternoon heating while variable cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing introduce one-degree uncertainty, consistent with historical mid-May variability around the long-term average high of roughly 26–27 °C. Traders are monitoring final model runs for shifts in precipitation timing or wind strength ahead of the Jiangbei International Airport station measurement that will resolve the market.