Recent ensemble guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models such as GFS places Chongqing’s most probable daily maximum on May 18 near 25–26 °C, aligning with the long-term May average of roughly 24–27 °C for the basin. Tight clustering of market-implied odds around these values reflects modest uncertainty driven by variable low-level moisture, light southerly flow, and afternoon cloud cover that can either enhance or suppress peak heating. Boundary-layer mixing and any passing showers may cap or boost readings by 1–2 °C, while the city’s topography amplifies diurnal temperature swings. Final model runs and official briefings expected in the next 48 hours will refine the precise threshold.