Current forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration cluster daily maximum temperatures in Chongqing around 25–26 °C for May 17, driven by light southerly flow, elevated low-level moisture, and partial cloud cover that restricts peak solar insolation and afternoon boundary-layer heating. Ensemble guidance shows only modest spread, with light rain or drizzle possible in the Sichuan Basin further capping surface warming near the long-term mid-May climatological average. These conditions explain why trader consensus centers tightly on the 25 °C and 26 °C contracts while assigning lower probability to warmer thresholds that would require clearer skies and stronger diurnal mixing. Updated model runs and official station observations through early afternoon will be the primary near-term catalysts for any final repricing before resolution.