Official meteorological observations from Spain's State Meteorological Agency confirmed a maximum temperature of 20°C in Madrid on May 16, driving the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for this outcome. This reading aligns with mid-May climatological norms for the Iberian Peninsula, where spring warming patterns typically produce daily highs in the 18–22°C range under stable high-pressure systems. Forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts had projected minimal deviation from these baselines in the 48 hours prior, with no significant heat advection or urban heat-island amplification observed. While final official reports can occasionally undergo minor revisions for instrumentation checks, historical precedent shows such adjustments rarely exceed 1°C after initial publication, leaving little realistic scope for market-moving changes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Madrid on May 16?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 16?
20°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$85,984 交易量
$85,984 交易量
2026-05-16
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$85,984 交易量
$85,984 交易量
2026-05-16
15°C or below
$4,487 交易量
No
16°C
$5,414 交易量
No
17°C
$8,090 交易量
No
18°C
$8,511 交易量
No
19°C
$9,999 交易量
No
20°C
$11,262 交易量
Yes
21°C
$12,254 交易量
No
22°C
$10,385 交易量
No
23°C
$6,885 交易量
No
24°C
$6,168 交易量
No
25°C or higher
$2,529 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official meteorological observations from Spain's State Meteorological Agency confirmed a maximum temperature of 20°C in Madrid on May 16, driving the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for this outcome. This reading aligns with mid-May climatological norms for the Iberian Peninsula, where spring warming patterns typically produce daily highs in the 18–22°C range under stable high-pressure systems. Forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts had projected minimal deviation from these baselines in the 48 hours prior, with no significant heat advection or urban heat-island amplification observed. While final official reports can occasionally undergo minor revisions for instrumentation checks, historical precedent shows such adjustments rarely exceed 1°C after initial publication, leaving little realistic scope for market-moving changes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
交易量
$85,984结束日期
2026-05-16市场开放时间
May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official meteorological observations from Spain's State Meteorological Agency confirmed a maximum temperature of 20°C in Madrid on May 16, driving the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for this outcome. This reading aligns with mid-May climatological norms for the Iberian Peninsula, where spring warming patterns typically produce daily highs in the 18–22°C range under stable high-pressure systems. Forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts had projected minimal deviation from these baselines in the 48 hours prior, with no significant heat advection or urban heat-island amplification observed. While final official reports can occasionally undergo minor revisions for instrumentation checks, historical precedent shows such adjustments rarely exceed 1°C after initial publication, leaving little realistic scope for market-moving changes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$85,984结束日期
2026-05-16市场开放时间
May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Official meteorological observations from Spain's State Meteorological Agency confirmed a maximum temperature of 20°C in Madrid on May 16, driving the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for this outcome. This reading aligns with mid-May climatological norms for the Iberian Peninsula, where spring warming patterns typically produce daily highs in the 18–22°C range under stable high-pressure systems. Forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts had projected minimal deviation from these baselines in the 48 hours prior, with no significant heat advection or urban heat-island amplification observed. While final official reports can occasionally undergo minor revisions for instrumentation checks, historical precedent shows such adjustments rarely exceed 1°C after initial publication, leaving little realistic scope for market-moving changes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题