Recent numerical weather prediction models, including consensus runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, point to a peak temperature of 28–29°C in Moscow on May 18 as the most likely outcome, driven by southerly warm-air advection under mostly clear skies and light winds. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with afternoon boundary-layer heating expected to reach these levels before any evening cooling sets in. Historical May climatology for the city shows mean daily maxima near 18–20°C, so this represents a notable positive anomaly of roughly 8–10°C. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering between the 28°C and 29°C contracts against modest model uncertainty in exact timing of peak insolation and potential for localized cloud development. Updated high-resolution forecasts and official Hydrometcenter observations tomorrow morning will provide the final calibration before market resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于莫斯科5月18日最高气温？
莫斯科5月18日最高气温？
29°C 33%
28°C 29%
30°C 19%
27°C 16%
最新
$10,326 交易量
最新
$10,326 交易量
2026-05-18
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
5%
27°C
16%
28°C
29%
29°C
33%
30°C
19%
31°C or higher
3%
29°C 33%
28°C 29%
30°C 19%
27°C 16%
最新
$10,326 交易量
最新
$10,326 交易量
2026-05-18
21°C or below
$870 交易量
<1%
22°C
$533 交易量
<1%
23°C
$1,146 交易量
<1%
24°C
$2,494 交易量
<1%
25°C
$1,610 交易量
1%
26°C
$598 交易量
5%
27°C
$498 交易量
16%
28°C
$689 交易量
29%
29°C
$512 交易量
33%
30°C
$405 交易量
19%
31°C or higher
$1,194 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including consensus runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, point to a peak temperature of 28–29°C in Moscow on May 18 as the most likely outcome, driven by southerly warm-air advection under mostly clear skies and light winds. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with afternoon boundary-layer heating expected to reach these levels before any evening cooling sets in. Historical May climatology for the city shows mean daily maxima near 18–20°C, so this represents a notable positive anomaly of roughly 8–10°C. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering between the 28°C and 29°C contracts against modest model uncertainty in exact timing of peak insolation and potential for localized cloud development. Updated high-resolution forecasts and official Hydrometcenter observations tomorrow morning will provide the final calibration before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
交易量
$10,326结束日期
2026-05-18市场开放时间
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including consensus runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, point to a peak temperature of 28–29°C in Moscow on May 18 as the most likely outcome, driven by southerly warm-air advection under mostly clear skies and light winds. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with afternoon boundary-layer heating expected to reach these levels before any evening cooling sets in. Historical May climatology for the city shows mean daily maxima near 18–20°C, so this represents a notable positive anomaly of roughly 8–10°C. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering between the 28°C and 29°C contracts against modest model uncertainty in exact timing of peak insolation and potential for localized cloud development. Updated high-resolution forecasts and official Hydrometcenter observations tomorrow morning will provide the final calibration before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$10,326结束日期
2026-05-18市场开放时间
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETRecent numerical weather prediction models, including consensus runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, point to a peak temperature of 28–29°C in Moscow on May 18 as the most likely outcome, driven by southerly warm-air advection under mostly clear skies and light winds. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with afternoon boundary-layer heating expected to reach these levels before any evening cooling sets in. Historical May climatology for the city shows mean daily maxima near 18–20°C, so this represents a notable positive anomaly of roughly 8–10°C. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering between the 28°C and 29°C contracts against modest model uncertainty in exact timing of peak insolation and potential for localized cloud development. Updated high-resolution forecasts and official Hydrometcenter observations tomorrow morning will provide the final calibration before market resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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