Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System show Moscow maximum temperatures on May 19 clustered between 27–32°C, driven by a southerly flow of warmer air ahead of a weak frontal boundary. This spread across model runs explains why market-implied odds for 28°C, 29°C, 30°C, and 31°C remain tightly grouped near 20–22.5 percent each, with lower probabilities assigned to outcomes below 27°C or at 32°C and above. Mid-May climatology places average daily highs near 18–20°C, so current guidance reflects above-normal conditions; updated runs expected within the next 24 hours could narrow the range ahead of the daily maximum observation used for market resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于莫斯科5月19日最高气温？
莫斯科5月19日最高气温？
31°C 25%
29°C 24%
28°C 24%
30°C 21%
最新
最新
2026-05-19
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
8%
28°C
22%
29°C
24%
30°C
21%
31°C
27%
32°C or higher
9%
31°C 25%
29°C 24%
28°C 24%
30°C 21%
最新
最新
2026-05-19
22°C or below
$25 交易量
<1%
23°C
$26 交易量
<1%
24°C
$530 交易量
<1%
25°C
$193 交易量
1%
26°C
$61 交易量
2%
27°C
$74 交易量
8%
28°C
$202 交易量
22%
29°C
$136 交易量
24%
30°C
$41 交易量
21%
31°C
$39 交易量
27%
32°C or higher
$145 交易量
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System show Moscow maximum temperatures on May 19 clustered between 27–32°C, driven by a southerly flow of warmer air ahead of a weak frontal boundary. This spread across model runs explains why market-implied odds for 28°C, 29°C, 30°C, and 31°C remain tightly grouped near 20–22.5 percent each, with lower probabilities assigned to outcomes below 27°C or at 32°C and above. Mid-May climatology places average daily highs near 18–20°C, so current guidance reflects above-normal conditions; updated runs expected within the next 24 hours could narrow the range ahead of the daily maximum observation used for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
交易量
$1,388结束日期
2026-05-19市场开放时间
May 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System show Moscow maximum temperatures on May 19 clustered between 27–32°C, driven by a southerly flow of warmer air ahead of a weak frontal boundary. This spread across model runs explains why market-implied odds for 28°C, 29°C, 30°C, and 31°C remain tightly grouped near 20–22.5 percent each, with lower probabilities assigned to outcomes below 27°C or at 32°C and above. Mid-May climatology places average daily highs near 18–20°C, so current guidance reflects above-normal conditions; updated runs expected within the next 24 hours could narrow the range ahead of the daily maximum observation used for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$1,388结束日期
2026-05-19市场开放时间
May 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ETRecent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System show Moscow maximum temperatures on May 19 clustered between 27–32°C, driven by a southerly flow of warmer air ahead of a weak frontal boundary. This spread across model runs explains why market-implied odds for 28°C, 29°C, 30°C, and 31°C remain tightly grouped near 20–22.5 percent each, with lower probabilities assigned to outcomes below 27°C or at 32°C and above. Mid-May climatology places average daily highs near 18–20°C, so current guidance reflects above-normal conditions; updated runs expected within the next 24 hours could narrow the range ahead of the daily maximum observation used for market resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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