Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to a high temperature of 23°C or below in Qingdao on May 14, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs around 22°C amid persistent cloud cover and cool northerly winds. Coastal sea breezes and elevated humidity from recent light rain systems are suppressing temperatures, aligning with mid-May climatological averages of 20–23°C highs at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport, the market's resolution source. Over the past 48 hours, observed highs stayed below 23°C, reinforcing this positioning, though model runs indicate a small risk of afternoon clearing that could nudge toward 24°C (15% odds). Updated CMA bulletins and hourly airport data expected throughout the day will refine these probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Qingdao on May 14?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on May 14?
23°C or below 85%
24°C 11%
25°C 4.1%
26°C 3.5%
最新
最新
2026-05-14
23°C or below
85%
24°C
11%
25°C
4%
26°C
3%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
23°C or below 85%
24°C 11%
25°C 4.1%
26°C 3.5%
最新
最新
2026-05-14
23°C or below
$823 交易量
85%
24°C
$433 交易量
11%
25°C
$579 交易量
4%
26°C
$268 交易量
3%
27°C
$581 交易量
<1%
28°C
$668 交易量
<1%
29°C
$738 交易量
1%
30°C
$530 交易量
<1%
31°C
$1,038 交易量
<1%
32°C
$580 交易量
<1%
33°C or higher
$1,184 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to a high temperature of 23°C or below in Qingdao on May 14, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs around 22°C amid persistent cloud cover and cool northerly winds. Coastal sea breezes and elevated humidity from recent light rain systems are suppressing temperatures, aligning with mid-May climatological averages of 20–23°C highs at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport, the market's resolution source. Over the past 48 hours, observed highs stayed below 23°C, reinforcing this positioning, though model runs indicate a small risk of afternoon clearing that could nudge toward 24°C (15% odds). Updated CMA bulletins and hourly airport data expected throughout the day will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 12, 2026, 12:16 AM ET
交易量
$7,422结束日期
2026-05-14市场开放时间
May 12, 2026, 12:16 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to a high temperature of 23°C or below in Qingdao on May 14, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs around 22°C amid persistent cloud cover and cool northerly winds. Coastal sea breezes and elevated humidity from recent light rain systems are suppressing temperatures, aligning with mid-May climatological averages of 20–23°C highs at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport, the market's resolution source. Over the past 48 hours, observed highs stayed below 23°C, reinforcing this positioning, though model runs indicate a small risk of afternoon clearing that could nudge toward 24°C (15% odds). Updated CMA bulletins and hourly airport data expected throughout the day will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$7,422结束日期
2026-05-14市场开放时间
May 12, 2026, 12:16 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to a high temperature of 23°C or below in Qingdao on May 14, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs around 22°C amid persistent cloud cover and cool northerly winds. Coastal sea breezes and elevated humidity from recent light rain systems are suppressing temperatures, aligning with mid-May climatological averages of 20–23°C highs at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport, the market's resolution source. Over the past 48 hours, observed highs stayed below 23°C, reinforcing this positioning, though model runs indicate a small risk of afternoon clearing that could nudge toward 24°C (15% odds). Updated CMA bulletins and hourly airport data expected throughout the day will refine these probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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