Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs highlight an unusually early cold front and deepened marine layer suppressing San Francisco highs on September 3 to the upper 60s °F, with a 60% chance of light rain or drizzle and persistent cloud cover. This aligns with the market's heaviest implied probability on 70-71 °F (40.5%) and 68-69 °F (28%), as traders weigh localized warming in eastern neighborhoods against official forecasts near 67-68 °F—about 2 °F below the 1991-2020 average. The storm's steering flow and timing limit afternoon clearing, keeping outcomes above 72 °F at under 20% combined while rendering sub-66 °F scenarios unlikely given current dew points and onshore flow. Updated model runs and NHC-adjacent regional briefings tomorrow morning represent the next key data points that could shift these skin-in-the-game odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月3日旧金山气温最高？
9月3日旧金山气温最高？
70-71°F 41%
68-69°F 27%
72-73°F 17%
66-67°F 7%
最新
最新
2026-09-03
61°F或以下
<1%
62-63°F
1%
64-65°F
4%
66-67°F
7%
68-69°F
27%
70-71°F
41%
72-73°F
17%
74-75°F
4%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
<1%
80华氏度或更高
<1%
70-71°F 41%
68-69°F 27%
72-73°F 17%
66-67°F 7%
最新
最新
2026-09-03
61°F或以下
$480 交易量
<1%
62-63°F
$150 交易量
1%
64-65°F
$207 交易量
4%
66-67°F
$862 交易量
7%
68-69°F
$1,057 交易量
27%
70-71°F
$240 交易量
41%
72-73°F
$530 交易量
17%
74-75°F
$985 交易量
4%
76-77°F
$92 交易量
1%
78-79°F
$190 交易量
<1%
80华氏度或更高
$505 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs highlight an unusually early cold front and deepened marine layer suppressing San Francisco highs on September 3 to the upper 60s °F, with a 60% chance of light rain or drizzle and persistent cloud cover. This aligns with the market's heaviest implied probability on 70-71 °F (40.5%) and 68-69 °F (28%), as traders weigh localized warming in eastern neighborhoods against official forecasts near 67-68 °F—about 2 °F below the 1991-2020 average. The storm's steering flow and timing limit afternoon clearing, keeping outcomes above 72 °F at under 20% combined while rendering sub-66 °F scenarios unlikely given current dew points and onshore flow. Updated model runs and NHC-adjacent regional briefings tomorrow morning represent the next key data points that could shift these skin-in-the-game odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 1, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
交易量
$5,298结束日期
2026-09-03市场开放时间
Sep 1, 2026, 7:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs highlight an unusually early cold front and deepened marine layer suppressing San Francisco highs on September 3 to the upper 60s °F, with a 60% chance of light rain or drizzle and persistent cloud cover. This aligns with the market's heaviest implied probability on 70-71 °F (40.5%) and 68-69 °F (28%), as traders weigh localized warming in eastern neighborhoods against official forecasts near 67-68 °F—about 2 °F below the 1991-2020 average. The storm's steering flow and timing limit afternoon clearing, keeping outcomes above 72 °F at under 20% combined while rendering sub-66 °F scenarios unlikely given current dew points and onshore flow. Updated model runs and NHC-adjacent regional briefings tomorrow morning represent the next key data points that could shift these skin-in-the-game odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$5,298结束日期
2026-09-03市场开放时间
Sep 1, 2026, 7:56 AM ETRecent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs highlight an unusually early cold front and deepened marine layer suppressing San Francisco highs on September 3 to the upper 60s °F, with a 60% chance of light rain or drizzle and persistent cloud cover. This aligns with the market's heaviest implied probability on 70-71 °F (40.5%) and 68-69 °F (28%), as traders weigh localized warming in eastern neighborhoods against official forecasts near 67-68 °F—about 2 °F below the 1991-2020 average. The storm's steering flow and timing limit afternoon clearing, keeping outcomes above 72 °F at under 20% combined while rendering sub-66 °F scenarios unlikely given current dew points and onshore flow. Updated model runs and NHC-adjacent regional briefings tomorrow morning represent the next key data points that could shift these skin-in-the-game odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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