Traders see 29–30°C as the most probable range for Tokyo’s August 31 maximum because ensemble forecasts from global and regional models place the expected value near 29.5°C, with roughly equal chances of a modest positive or negative deviation. Persistent subtropical high pressure and southwesterly flow are maintaining warm, humid conditions typical of late-August climatology, while a weak frontal boundary and possible scattered convection introduce enough variability to split probability between 29°C and 30°C. The Japan Meteorological Agency’s guidance and medium-range ensembles currently show low risk of either a strong cool surge or extreme heat, keeping the 28°C and 31°C outcomes secondary but still viable within model spread. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will be the key catalyst for any shift in market-implied odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月31日东京气温最高？
8月31日东京气温最高？
29°C 29%
30°C 29%
28°C 16%
31°C 15%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
7%
28°C
16%
29°C
29%
30°C
29%
31°C
15%
32°C
8%
33°C
5%
34°C
4%
35°C or higher
1%
29°C 29%
30°C 29%
28°C 16%
31°C 15%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
25°C or below
$40 交易量
<1%
26°C
$115 交易量
<1%
27°C
$100 交易量
7%
28°C
$203 交易量
16%
29°C
$182 交易量
29%
30°C
$176 交易量
29%
31°C
$51 交易量
15%
32°C
$44 交易量
8%
33°C
$25 交易量
5%
34°C
$0 交易量
4%
35°C or higher
$0 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 29–30°C as the most probable range for Tokyo’s August 31 maximum because ensemble forecasts from global and regional models place the expected value near 29.5°C, with roughly equal chances of a modest positive or negative deviation. Persistent subtropical high pressure and southwesterly flow are maintaining warm, humid conditions typical of late-August climatology, while a weak frontal boundary and possible scattered convection introduce enough variability to split probability between 29°C and 30°C. The Japan Meteorological Agency’s guidance and medium-range ensembles currently show low risk of either a strong cool surge or extreme heat, keeping the 28°C and 31°C outcomes secondary but still viable within model spread. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will be the key catalyst for any shift in market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$936结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 29–30°C as the most probable range for Tokyo’s August 31 maximum because ensemble forecasts from global and regional models place the expected value near 29.5°C, with roughly equal chances of a modest positive or negative deviation. Persistent subtropical high pressure and southwesterly flow are maintaining warm, humid conditions typical of late-August climatology, while a weak frontal boundary and possible scattered convection introduce enough variability to split probability between 29°C and 30°C. The Japan Meteorological Agency’s guidance and medium-range ensembles currently show low risk of either a strong cool surge or extreme heat, keeping the 28°C and 31°C outcomes secondary but still viable within model spread. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will be the key catalyst for any shift in market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$936结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETTraders see 29–30°C as the most probable range for Tokyo’s August 31 maximum because ensemble forecasts from global and regional models place the expected value near 29.5°C, with roughly equal chances of a modest positive or negative deviation. Persistent subtropical high pressure and southwesterly flow are maintaining warm, humid conditions typical of late-August climatology, while a weak frontal boundary and possible scattered convection introduce enough variability to split probability between 29°C and 30°C. The Japan Meteorological Agency’s guidance and medium-range ensembles currently show low risk of either a strong cool surge or extreme heat, keeping the 28°C and 31°C outcomes secondary but still viable within model spread. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will be the key catalyst for any shift in market-implied odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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