Recent ensemble runs from the ECMWF and GFS models converge on a daytime maximum of 18–19 °C for Warsaw on May 19, driven by a weakening high-pressure ridge giving way to Atlantic flow that limits solar heating while keeping boundary-layer temperatures moderate. Subtle differences in predicted cloud timing and low-level wind shear explain why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 19 °C (34 %) and 18 °C (27 %), with 20 °C remaining viable if afternoon insolation exceeds current guidance. These near-term forecasts align with May climatology, where highs typically reach 19–20 °C, but model spread in precipitation onset introduces the observed market uncertainty ahead of the next high-resolution updates.