Trader consensus assigns a 71% implied probability to a Warsaw high of 19°C or above on May 18, reflecting ensemble model runs that show warm advection from the south under building high pressure. Recent ECMWF and GFS guidance indicate daytime maxima of 20–22°C amid light southerly flow, reduced cloud cover, and a modest positive temperature anomaly relative to the mid-May climatological mean near 17°C. Model consensus remains tight, with limited spread on boundary-layer mixing and downslope warming effects. Forecasters at the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management are expected to issue refined guidance within the next 48 hours that could further anchor or shift these near-term probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于华沙5月18日最高气温？
华沙5月18日最高气温？
19°C or higher 70%
18°C 21%
17°C 6%
16°C 2.4%
最新
最新
2026-05-18
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
2%
17°C
6%
18°C
21%
19°C or higher
70%
19°C or higher 70%
18°C 21%
17°C 6%
16°C 2.4%
最新
最新
2026-05-18
9°C or below
$582 交易量
<1%
10°C
$602 交易量
<1%
11°C
$1,087 交易量
<1%
12°C
$446 交易量
<1%
13°C
$123 交易量
1%
14°C
$736 交易量
<1%
15°C
$566 交易量
1%
16°C
$440 交易量
2%
17°C
$309 交易量
6%
18°C
$166 交易量
21%
19°C or higher
$248 交易量
70%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns a 71% implied probability to a Warsaw high of 19°C or above on May 18, reflecting ensemble model runs that show warm advection from the south under building high pressure. Recent ECMWF and GFS guidance indicate daytime maxima of 20–22°C amid light southerly flow, reduced cloud cover, and a modest positive temperature anomaly relative to the mid-May climatological mean near 17°C. Model consensus remains tight, with limited spread on boundary-layer mixing and downslope warming effects. Forecasters at the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management are expected to issue refined guidance within the next 48 hours that could further anchor or shift these near-term probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
交易量
$5,306结束日期
2026-05-18市场开放时间
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns a 71% implied probability to a Warsaw high of 19°C or above on May 18, reflecting ensemble model runs that show warm advection from the south under building high pressure. Recent ECMWF and GFS guidance indicate daytime maxima of 20–22°C amid light southerly flow, reduced cloud cover, and a modest positive temperature anomaly relative to the mid-May climatological mean near 17°C. Model consensus remains tight, with limited spread on boundary-layer mixing and downslope warming effects. Forecasters at the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management are expected to issue refined guidance within the next 48 hours that could further anchor or shift these near-term probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$5,306结束日期
2026-05-18市场开放时间
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETTrader consensus assigns a 71% implied probability to a Warsaw high of 19°C or above on May 18, reflecting ensemble model runs that show warm advection from the south under building high pressure. Recent ECMWF and GFS guidance indicate daytime maxima of 20–22°C amid light southerly flow, reduced cloud cover, and a modest positive temperature anomaly relative to the mid-May climatological mean near 17°C. Model consensus remains tight, with limited spread on boundary-layer mixing and downslope warming effects. Forecasters at the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management are expected to issue refined guidance within the next 48 hours that could further anchor or shift these near-term probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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