Current forecast models from New Zealand’s MetService show a maximum temperature of 14°C for Wellington on May 17, driven by stable high-pressure dominance and consistent output across regional numerical weather prediction systems. This strong scientific consensus, anchored in real-time surface observations and upper-air soundings, explains the market-implied probability above 99% for that exact outcome. Mid-May climatological baselines for the area typically range 12–16°C under similar southerly flows, reinforcing the positioning. Minor shifts in wind direction or coastal cloud cover could still alter the final reading, but such changes would require an unexpected frontal passage not currently indicated by official guidance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5月17日惠灵顿的最高温度?
14°C 99.7%
15°C <1%
8°C或以下 <1%
9°C <1%
$53,814 交易量
$53,814 交易量
8°C或以下
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
100%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C或更高
<1%
14°C 99.7%
15°C <1%
8°C或以下 <1%
9°C <1%
$53,814 交易量
$53,814 交易量
8°C或以下
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
100%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C或更高
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Current forecast models from New Zealand’s MetService show a maximum temperature of 14°C for Wellington on May 17, driven by stable high-pressure dominance and consistent output across regional numerical weather prediction systems. This strong scientific consensus, anchored in real-time surface observations and upper-air soundings, explains the market-implied probability above 99% for that exact outcome. Mid-May climatological baselines for the area typically range 12–16°C under similar southerly flows, reinforcing the positioning. Minor shifts in wind direction or coastal cloud cover could still alter the final reading, but such changes would require an unexpected frontal passage not currently indicated by official guidance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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