Ongoing U.S.-Iran naval tensions and Iran's coordination requirements for commercial traffic have sharply curtailed vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping weekly transits at a small fraction of pre-crisis levels. Recent shipping data show daily crossings often limited to single digits or low teens amid active blockades, rerouting of dozens of vessels, and heightened security risks that prompt operators to pause or divert voyages. These conditions sustain trader consensus around the 20-39 range as the leading outcome, with the closely matched probabilities for fewer than 20 transits reflecting uncertainty over whether incremental de-escalation or further restrictions will emerge during the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于20-39 41%
<20 31%
40-59 21%
80+ 15%
最新
最新
2026-05-24
<20
31%
20-39
41%
40-59
21%
60-79
15%
80+
15%
20-39 41%
<20 31%
40-59 21%
80+ 15%
最新
最新
2026-05-24
<20
$98 交易量
31%
20-39
$82 交易量
41%
40-59
$48 交易量
21%
60-79
$48 交易量
15%
80+
$56 交易量
15%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 18, 2026, through May 24, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing U.S.-Iran naval tensions and Iran's coordination requirements for commercial traffic have sharply curtailed vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping weekly transits at a small fraction of pre-crisis levels. Recent shipping data show daily crossings often limited to single digits or low teens amid active blockades, rerouting of dozens of vessels, and heightened security risks that prompt operators to pause or divert voyages. These conditions sustain trader consensus around the 20-39 range as the leading outcome, with the closely matched probabilities for fewer than 20 transits reflecting uncertainty over whether incremental de-escalation or further restrictions will emerge during the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 18, 2026, through May 24, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： May 18, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
交易量
$333结束日期
2026-05-24市场开放时间
May 18, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 18, 2026, through May 24, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing U.S.-Iran naval tensions and Iran's coordination requirements for commercial traffic have sharply curtailed vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping weekly transits at a small fraction of pre-crisis levels. Recent shipping data show daily crossings often limited to single digits or low teens amid active blockades, rerouting of dozens of vessels, and heightened security risks that prompt operators to pause or divert voyages. These conditions sustain trader consensus around the 20-39 range as the leading outcome, with the closely matched probabilities for fewer than 20 transits reflecting uncertainty over whether incremental de-escalation or further restrictions will emerge during the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 18, 2026, through May 24, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$333结束日期
2026-05-24市场开放时间
May 18, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing U.S.-Iran naval tensions and Iran's coordination requirements for commercial traffic have sharply curtailed vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping weekly transits at a small fraction of pre-crisis levels. Recent shipping data show daily crossings often limited to single digits or low teens amid active blockades, rerouting of dozens of vessels, and heightened security risks that prompt operators to pause or divert voyages. These conditions sustain trader consensus around the 20-39 range as the leading outcome, with the closely matched probabilities for fewer than 20 transits reflecting uncertainty over whether incremental de-escalation or further restrictions will emerge during the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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