Latest National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a humid air mass with southwest flow will keep overnight lows in the low 70s across New York City on August 30, supported by minimal radiational cooling under increasing cloud cover and 40-50% shower chances after dark. This setup contrasts with recent August minima in the mid-to-upper 60s observed earlier in the month and explains why market-implied odds cluster tightly around 64–69°F despite the warmer consensus forecast. Key variables differentiating the leading buckets include exact timing of any clearing, dewpoint trends near 70°F that limit temperature drops, and potential urban heat-island effects at official measurement sites. Updated model runs and National Weather Service evening briefings over the next 12–18 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月30日纽约市最低气温？
8月30日纽约市最低气温？
68-69°F 41%
66-67°F 36%
64-65°F 32%
70-71°F 16%
最新
最新
2026-08-30
57°F或更低
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
3%
62-63°F
5%
64-65°F
32%
66-67°F
36%
68-69°F
31%
70-71°F
16%
72-73°F
3%
74-75°F
1%
76°F或更高
<1%
68-69°F 41%
66-67°F 36%
64-65°F 32%
70-71°F 16%
最新
最新
2026-08-30
57°F或更低
$26 交易量
<1%
58-59°F
$15 交易量
<1%
60-61°F
$311 交易量
3%
62-63°F
$357 交易量
5%
64-65°F
$137 交易量
32%
66-67°F
$0 交易量
36%
68-69°F
$168 交易量
31%
70-71°F
$53 交易量
16%
72-73°F
$366 交易量
3%
74-75°F
$40 交易量
1%
76°F或更高
$66 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a humid air mass with southwest flow will keep overnight lows in the low 70s across New York City on August 30, supported by minimal radiational cooling under increasing cloud cover and 40-50% shower chances after dark. This setup contrasts with recent August minima in the mid-to-upper 60s observed earlier in the month and explains why market-implied odds cluster tightly around 64–69°F despite the warmer consensus forecast. Key variables differentiating the leading buckets include exact timing of any clearing, dewpoint trends near 70°F that limit temperature drops, and potential urban heat-island effects at official measurement sites. Updated model runs and National Weather Service evening briefings over the next 12–18 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
交易量
$1,529结束日期
2026-08-30市场开放时间
Aug 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a humid air mass with southwest flow will keep overnight lows in the low 70s across New York City on August 30, supported by minimal radiational cooling under increasing cloud cover and 40-50% shower chances after dark. This setup contrasts with recent August minima in the mid-to-upper 60s observed earlier in the month and explains why market-implied odds cluster tightly around 64–69°F despite the warmer consensus forecast. Key variables differentiating the leading buckets include exact timing of any clearing, dewpoint trends near 70°F that limit temperature drops, and potential urban heat-island effects at official measurement sites. Updated model runs and National Weather Service evening briefings over the next 12–18 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,529结束日期
2026-08-30市场开放时间
Aug 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETLatest National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a humid air mass with southwest flow will keep overnight lows in the low 70s across New York City on August 30, supported by minimal radiational cooling under increasing cloud cover and 40-50% shower chances after dark. This setup contrasts with recent August minima in the mid-to-upper 60s observed earlier in the month and explains why market-implied odds cluster tightly around 64–69°F despite the warmer consensus forecast. Key variables differentiating the leading buckets include exact timing of any clearing, dewpoint trends near 70°F that limit temperature drops, and potential urban heat-island effects at official measurement sites. Updated model runs and National Weather Service evening briefings over the next 12–18 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题