Official National Weather Service forecasts for New York City on August 5, 2026, indicate an overnight minimum near 70–71 °F under a warm, humid air mass with southerly flow and mostly cloudy skies that limit radiational cooling. This aligns with the market’s leading 70–71 °F bin at 63.5 % implied probability, as models show minimal diurnal range and above-average temperatures consistent with the Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal outlook. Recent observations from Central Park ASOS confirm dew points in the low 60s °F and light winds, supporting limited overnight drops. Traders appear to weigh the consensus model guidance heavily, with lower bins (68–69 °F) at just 10.5 % reflecting the low likelihood of a cooler boundary-layer airmass arriving before dawn. Updated model runs tonight will refine the exact minimum before the market resolves.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于纽约市8月5日的最低温度？
纽约市8月5日的最低温度？
70-71°F 63%
72-73°F 38%
68-69°F 12%
74-75°F 5.0%
最新
$12,729 交易量
最新
$12,729 交易量
2026-08-05
57°F或更低
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
8%
70-71°F
63%
72-73°F
32%
74-75°F
5%
76°F或更高
<1%
70-71°F 63%
72-73°F 38%
68-69°F 12%
74-75°F 5.0%
最新
$12,729 交易量
最新
$12,729 交易量
2026-08-05
57°F或更低
$247 交易量
<1%
58-59°F
$365 交易量
<1%
60-61°F
$365 交易量
<1%
62-63°F
$920 交易量
<1%
64-65°F
$1,150 交易量
<1%
66-67°F
$782 交易量
<1%
68-69°F
$1,081 交易量
8%
70-71°F
$1,746 交易量
63%
72-73°F
$580 交易量
32%
74-75°F
$3,736 交易量
5%
76°F或更高
$1,757 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service forecasts for New York City on August 5, 2026, indicate an overnight minimum near 70–71 °F under a warm, humid air mass with southerly flow and mostly cloudy skies that limit radiational cooling. This aligns with the market’s leading 70–71 °F bin at 63.5 % implied probability, as models show minimal diurnal range and above-average temperatures consistent with the Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal outlook. Recent observations from Central Park ASOS confirm dew points in the low 60s °F and light winds, supporting limited overnight drops. Traders appear to weigh the consensus model guidance heavily, with lower bins (68–69 °F) at just 10.5 % reflecting the low likelihood of a cooler boundary-layer airmass arriving before dawn. Updated model runs tonight will refine the exact minimum before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 3, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
交易量
$12,729结束日期
2026-08-05市场开放时间
Aug 3, 2026, 9:30 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service forecasts for New York City on August 5, 2026, indicate an overnight minimum near 70–71 °F under a warm, humid air mass with southerly flow and mostly cloudy skies that limit radiational cooling. This aligns with the market’s leading 70–71 °F bin at 63.5 % implied probability, as models show minimal diurnal range and above-average temperatures consistent with the Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal outlook. Recent observations from Central Park ASOS confirm dew points in the low 60s °F and light winds, supporting limited overnight drops. Traders appear to weigh the consensus model guidance heavily, with lower bins (68–69 °F) at just 10.5 % reflecting the low likelihood of a cooler boundary-layer airmass arriving before dawn. Updated model runs tonight will refine the exact minimum before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$12,729结束日期
2026-08-05市场开放时间
Aug 3, 2026, 9:30 PM ETOfficial National Weather Service forecasts for New York City on August 5, 2026, indicate an overnight minimum near 70–71 °F under a warm, humid air mass with southerly flow and mostly cloudy skies that limit radiational cooling. This aligns with the market’s leading 70–71 °F bin at 63.5 % implied probability, as models show minimal diurnal range and above-average temperatures consistent with the Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal outlook. Recent observations from Central Park ASOS confirm dew points in the low 60s °F and light winds, supporting limited overnight drops. Traders appear to weigh the consensus model guidance heavily, with lower bins (68–69 °F) at just 10.5 % reflecting the low likelihood of a cooler boundary-layer airmass arriving before dawn. Updated model runs tonight will refine the exact minimum before the market resolves.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题