The overwhelming trader consensus at 99.8% implied probability for a 14°C low in Seoul on May 16 reflects converging short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble models, which settled on an overnight minimum of exactly 14°C. Mostly clear skies combined with light southerly winds enabled efficient radiative cooling and limited urban heat retention, aligning with mid-May climatological norms where official Seoul Central Observatory records typically show lows between 12°C and 16°C. Recent drier air following earlier precipitation further supported this trajectory. A significant last-minute model revision or localized microclimate shift remains the only realistic scenario that could move the outcome outside the narrow 14°C band before final resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5月16日首尔最低气温？
5月16日首尔最低气温？
14°C 99.8%
13°C或以下 <1%
15°C <1%
17°C <1%
$48,372 交易量
$48,372 交易量
2026-05-16
13°C或以下
否
14°C
是
15°C
否
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C
否
22℃
否
23°C或以上
否
14°C 99.8%
13°C或以下 <1%
15°C <1%
17°C <1%
$48,372 交易量
$48,372 交易量
2026-05-16
13°C或以下
$2,664 交易量
否
14°C
$5,169 交易量
是
15°C
$19,720 交易量
否
16°C
$2,462 交易量
否
17°C
$2,520 交易量
否
18°C
$2,683 交易量
否
19°C
$3,988 交易量
否
20°C
$1,686 交易量
否
21°C
$1,464 交易量
否
22℃
$1,090 交易量
否
23°C或以上
$4,928 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The overwhelming trader consensus at 99.8% implied probability for a 14°C low in Seoul on May 16 reflects converging short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble models, which settled on an overnight minimum of exactly 14°C. Mostly clear skies combined with light southerly winds enabled efficient radiative cooling and limited urban heat retention, aligning with mid-May climatological norms where official Seoul Central Observatory records typically show lows between 12°C and 16°C. Recent drier air following earlier precipitation further supported this trajectory. A significant last-minute model revision or localized microclimate shift remains the only realistic scenario that could move the outcome outside the narrow 14°C band before final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$48,372结束日期
2026-05-16市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The overwhelming trader consensus at 99.8% implied probability for a 14°C low in Seoul on May 16 reflects converging short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble models, which settled on an overnight minimum of exactly 14°C. Mostly clear skies combined with light southerly winds enabled efficient radiative cooling and limited urban heat retention, aligning with mid-May climatological norms where official Seoul Central Observatory records typically show lows between 12°C and 16°C. Recent drier air following earlier precipitation further supported this trajectory. A significant last-minute model revision or localized microclimate shift remains the only realistic scenario that could move the outcome outside the narrow 14°C band before final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$48,372结束日期
2026-05-16市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThe overwhelming trader consensus at 99.8% implied probability for a 14°C low in Seoul on May 16 reflects converging short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble models, which settled on an overnight minimum of exactly 14°C. Mostly clear skies combined with light southerly winds enabled efficient radiative cooling and limited urban heat retention, aligning with mid-May climatological norms where official Seoul Central Observatory records typically show lows between 12°C and 16°C. Recent drier air following earlier precipitation further supported this trajectory. A significant last-minute model revision or localized microclimate shift remains the only realistic scenario that could move the outcome outside the narrow 14°C band before final resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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