Recent global surface temperature anomalies from NOAA and NASA data sets have held near 1.1–1.3 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline through early 2026, consistent with the market’s leading 1.10–1.14 °C interval. The equatorial Pacific remains in ENSO-neutral conditions but is rapidly transitioning toward El Niño, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center now assigning an 82 % probability of El Niño emergence during May–July 2026. This developing warm phase, superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic trend, supports the current trader consensus while leaving room for modest month-to-month variability driven by short-term atmospheric patterns and measurement uncertainty in the final May average.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 61%
<1.10ºC 17%
1.15–1.19ºC 15%
1.20–1.24ºC 7%
$58,574 交易量
$58,574 交易量
2026-06-10
<1.10ºC
17%
1.10–1.14ºC
61%
1.15–1.19ºC
15%
1.20–1.24ºC
7%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC 61%
<1.10ºC 17%
1.15–1.19ºC 15%
1.20–1.24ºC 7%
$58,574 交易量
$58,574 交易量
2026-06-10
<1.10ºC
$23,927 交易量
17%
1.10–1.14ºC
$5,389 交易量
61%
1.15–1.19ºC
$8,783 交易量
15%
1.20–1.24ºC
$6,181 交易量
7%
1.25–1.29ºC
$6,539 交易量
3%
>1.29ºC
$7,755 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent global surface temperature anomalies from NOAA and NASA data sets have held near 1.1–1.3 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline through early 2026, consistent with the market’s leading 1.10–1.14 °C interval. The equatorial Pacific remains in ENSO-neutral conditions but is rapidly transitioning toward El Niño, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center now assigning an 82 % probability of El Niño emergence during May–July 2026. This developing warm phase, superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic trend, supports the current trader consensus while leaving room for modest month-to-month variability driven by short-term atmospheric patterns and measurement uncertainty in the final May average.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市场开放时间： Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
交易量
$58,574结束日期
2026-06-10市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent global surface temperature anomalies from NOAA and NASA data sets have held near 1.1–1.3 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline through early 2026, consistent with the market’s leading 1.10–1.14 °C interval. The equatorial Pacific remains in ENSO-neutral conditions but is rapidly transitioning toward El Niño, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center now assigning an 82 % probability of El Niño emergence during May–July 2026. This developing warm phase, superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic trend, supports the current trader consensus while leaving room for modest month-to-month variability driven by short-term atmospheric patterns and measurement uncertainty in the final May average.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$58,574结束日期
2026-06-10市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent global surface temperature anomalies from NOAA and NASA data sets have held near 1.1–1.3 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline through early 2026, consistent with the market’s leading 1.10–1.14 °C interval. The equatorial Pacific remains in ENSO-neutral conditions but is rapidly transitioning toward El Niño, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center now assigning an 82 % probability of El Niño emergence during May–July 2026. This developing warm phase, superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic trend, supports the current trader consensus while leaving room for modest month-to-month variability driven by short-term atmospheric patterns and measurement uncertainty in the final May average.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题