Diplomatic momentum toward new Israeli recognitions remains limited ahead of the June 30 resolution window, with trader consensus reflecting stalled normalization talks and competing regional priorities. Saudi Arabia has shifted focus to a Saudi-French initiative promoting Palestinian state recognition, while public and official rhetoric in Riyadh has grown more critical of Israel amid regional tensions. Syria’s HTS-led authorities have signaled possible normalization by the end of 2026 but have taken no concrete steps toward an earlier announcement. Broader Arab League and OIC members continue to prioritize two-state outcomes over bilateral ties, and no major summits, bilateral visits, or policy shifts capable of producing new recognitions are scheduled in the immediate term. These dynamics have kept implied probabilities low across remaining non-recognizing states.