**Québec Solidaire maintains competitive positions in several Montreal-area ridings ahead of the October 5, 2026, provincial election, supporting trader consensus on at least one seat win.** Recent seat projections from 338Canada place QS at a mean of five seats (range 2–10), with safe or likely holds in Gouin, Mercier, and Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques, plus toss-ups in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve and Taschereau. Aggregated polling shows QS support near 8–11 percent provincewide, concentrated among urban voters, which aligns with the party's incumbency advantages in those districts despite broader challenges from the PQ, Liberals, and CAQ. The election was formally called on August 27, with QS launching its campaign focused on retaining relevance in core strongholds. These factors, reflected in multiple nonpartisan models, underpin the elevated implied probability for a seat outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
95% 概率
最新
最新
2026-10-05
是
95% 概率
最新
最新
2026-10-05
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Québec Solidaire maintains competitive positions in several Montreal-area ridings ahead of the October 5, 2026, provincial election, supporting trader consensus on at least one seat win.** Recent seat projections from 338Canada place QS at a mean of five seats (range 2–10), with safe or likely holds in Gouin, Mercier, and Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques, plus toss-ups in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve and Taschereau. Aggregated polling shows QS support near 8–11 percent provincewide, concentrated among urban voters, which aligns with the party's incumbency advantages in those districts despite broader challenges from the PQ, Liberals, and CAQ. The election was formally called on August 27, with QS launching its campaign focused on retaining relevance in core strongholds. These factors, reflected in multiple nonpartisan models, underpin the elevated implied probability for a seat outcome.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
市场开放时间： Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ET
交易量
$278结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Québec Solidaire maintains competitive positions in several Montreal-area ridings ahead of the October 5, 2026, provincial election, supporting trader consensus on at least one seat win.** Recent seat projections from 338Canada place QS at a mean of five seats (range 2–10), with safe or likely holds in Gouin, Mercier, and Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques, plus toss-ups in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve and Taschereau. Aggregated polling shows QS support near 8–11 percent provincewide, concentrated among urban voters, which aligns with the party's incumbency advantages in those districts despite broader challenges from the PQ, Liberals, and CAQ. The election was formally called on August 27, with QS launching its campaign focused on retaining relevance in core strongholds. These factors, reflected in multiple nonpartisan models, underpin the elevated implied probability for a seat outcome.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
交易量
$278结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Québec Solidaire maintains competitive positions in several Montreal-area ridings ahead of the October 5, 2026, provincial election, supporting trader consensus on at least one seat win.** Recent seat projections from 338Canada place QS at a mean of five seats (range 2–10), with safe or likely holds in Gouin, Mercier, and Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques, plus toss-ups in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve and Taschereau. Aggregated polling shows QS support near 8–11 percent provincewide, concentrated among urban voters, which aligns with the party's incumbency advantages in those districts despite broader challenges from the PQ, Liberals, and CAQ. The election was formally called on August 27, with QS launching its campaign focused on retaining relevance in core strongholds. These factors, reflected in multiple nonpartisan models, underpin the elevated implied probability for a seat outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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