Recent polling aggregates project the CAQ under new leader Christine Fréchette at roughly 23 percent support ahead of the October 5 election, placing it behind the Parti Québécois while competing with the Liberals for federalist voters. Seat models show wide ranges for the CAQ, centered near 21 seats but extending from single digits to the low forties, driven by regional vote efficiency, numerous three-way races, and high incumbent retirements. The tight distribution between the 20-24 and 30-plus brackets on Polymarket reflects ongoing campaign volatility, with late shifts in francophone turnout or Liberal rebound potentially altering the final tally before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于20-24 37%
30+ 34%
少于5 15.6%
5-9 13.5%
$20,574 交易量
$20,574 交易量
2026-10-05
少于5
11%
5-9
13%
10-14
8%
15-19
6%
20-24
37%
25-29
11%
30+
34%
20-24 37%
30+ 34%
少于5 15.6%
5-9 13.5%
$20,574 交易量
$20,574 交易量
2026-10-05
少于5
$1,410 交易量
11%
5-9
$1,984 交易量
13%
10-14
$3,537 交易量
8%
15-19
$1,896 交易量
6%
20-24
$3,556 交易量
37%
25-29
$1,794 交易量
11%
30+
$6,396 交易量
34%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates project the CAQ under new leader Christine Fréchette at roughly 23 percent support ahead of the October 5 election, placing it behind the Parti Québécois while competing with the Liberals for federalist voters. Seat models show wide ranges for the CAQ, centered near 21 seats but extending from single digits to the low forties, driven by regional vote efficiency, numerous three-way races, and high incumbent retirements. The tight distribution between the 20-24 and 30-plus brackets on Polymarket reflects ongoing campaign volatility, with late shifts in francophone turnout or Liberal rebound potentially altering the final tally before resolution.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
市场开放时间： Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
交易量
$20,574结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETParliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates project the CAQ under new leader Christine Fréchette at roughly 23 percent support ahead of the October 5 election, placing it behind the Parti Québécois while competing with the Liberals for federalist voters. Seat models show wide ranges for the CAQ, centered near 21 seats but extending from single digits to the low forties, driven by regional vote efficiency, numerous three-way races, and high incumbent retirements. The tight distribution between the 20-24 and 30-plus brackets on Polymarket reflects ongoing campaign volatility, with late shifts in francophone turnout or Liberal rebound potentially altering the final tally before resolution.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
交易量
$20,574结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETRecent polling aggregates project the CAQ under new leader Christine Fréchette at roughly 23 percent support ahead of the October 5 election, placing it behind the Parti Québécois while competing with the Liberals for federalist voters. Seat models show wide ranges for the CAQ, centered near 21 seats but extending from single digits to the low forties, driven by regional vote efficiency, numerous three-way races, and high incumbent retirements. The tight distribution between the 20-24 and 30-plus brackets on Polymarket reflects ongoing campaign volatility, with late shifts in francophone turnout or Liberal rebound potentially altering the final tally before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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