Geopolitical tensions stemming from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran have severely restricted commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG flows. Daily transits have fallen to single digits or near zero in recent weeks from pre-conflict averages near 130 vessels, driving sharp reductions in supply and elevating oil futures alongside tanker freight rates. Recent easing, including Iran’s selective approval for Chinese-flagged carriers and U.S. guidance for neutral ships, lifted activity to about 30 transits in a recent 24-hour window as of mid-May. Traders are monitoring whether these incremental reopenings can push daily volumes above the market threshold before the May 31 resolution date, with any sustained increase likely to ease energy price premiums and reduce the risk premium embedded in related derivatives.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$477,128 交易量
2026-05-31
20+
49%
40+
18%
60+
7%
80+
4%
$477,128 交易量
20+
$111,390 交易量
49%
40+
$117,184 交易量
18%
60+
$67,052 交易量
7%
80+
$181,503 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions stemming from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran have severely restricted commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG flows. Daily transits have fallen to single digits or near zero in recent weeks from pre-conflict averages near 130 vessels, driving sharp reductions in supply and elevating oil futures alongside tanker freight rates. Recent easing, including Iran’s selective approval for Chinese-flagged carriers and U.S. guidance for neutral ships, lifted activity to about 30 transits in a recent 24-hour window as of mid-May. Traders are monitoring whether these incremental reopenings can push daily volumes above the market threshold before the May 31 resolution date, with any sustained increase likely to ease energy price premiums and reduce the risk premium embedded in related derivatives.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
交易量
$477,128结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions stemming from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran have severely restricted commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG flows. Daily transits have fallen to single digits or near zero in recent weeks from pre-conflict averages near 130 vessels, driving sharp reductions in supply and elevating oil futures alongside tanker freight rates. Recent easing, including Iran’s selective approval for Chinese-flagged carriers and U.S. guidance for neutral ships, lifted activity to about 30 transits in a recent 24-hour window as of mid-May. Traders are monitoring whether these incremental reopenings can push daily volumes above the market threshold before the May 31 resolution date, with any sustained increase likely to ease energy price premiums and reduce the risk premium embedded in related derivatives.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$477,128结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Geopolitical tensions stemming from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran have severely restricted commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG flows. Daily transits have fallen to single digits or near zero in recent weeks from pre-conflict averages near 130 vessels, driving sharp reductions in supply and elevating oil futures alongside tanker freight rates. Recent easing, including Iran’s selective approval for Chinese-flagged carriers and U.S. guidance for neutral ships, lifted activity to about 30 transits in a recent 24-hour window as of mid-May. Traders are monitoring whether these incremental reopenings can push daily volumes above the market threshold before the May 31 resolution date, with any sustained increase likely to ease energy price premiums and reduce the risk premium embedded in related derivatives.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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